Almonty Industries Receives Major Price Target Upgrade Amid Supply Squeeze

Analysts raise Almonty's price target to $25 as global tungsten shortage deepens. The miner's Sangdong project begins production amid surging prices and U.S. defense bans.

A significant reassessment of the global tungsten market has prompted a leading analyst firm to substantially raise its valuation for Canadian mining operator Almonty Industries. The shift reflects a combination of acute supply constraints and a pivotal operational milestone for the company, which now commands a market capitalization exceeding $4 billion.

Supply Crisis Drives Analyst Re-Rating

In a recent research update, DA Davidson has increased its price target for Almonty from $18.00 to $25.00 per share, reiterating its "Buy" recommendation. Published just 48 hours ago, this adjustment stems not from company-specific news but from a fundamental re-evaluation of the entire sector.

The firm revised its pricing model in response to a severe shortage in the tungsten supply chain. Analysts now project that the reference price for the metal will surpass $2,000 per metric ton in the near term. With global mine supply considered extremely limited, DA Davidson has significantly raised its price assumptions through to 2028.

Macroeconomic Tailwinds Intensify

Powerful macroeconomic forces are providing substantial momentum. China, which controls an estimated 75% to 80% of global tungsten supply, tightened export restrictions in late 2025. According to BMO Capital Markets, this move temporarily halted Chinese exports entirely, contributing to a price surge of over 160% in 2025. The upward trend has continued into early 2026.

Further pressure is coming from a planned U.S. Department of Defense ban on tungsten sourced from China, Russia, and North Korea, set to take effect on January 1, 2027. This regulation is already compelling Western consumers to diversify their supply chains. Almonty CEO Lewis Black recently confirmed that customers are accepting higher prices due to the tangible scarcity.

Transition to Producer Nears Completion

A core element of the bullish outlook is Almonty's operational transformation. The company's flagship Sangdong project in South Korea's Gangwon province commenced commercial production in December 2025. The first ore shipment has already left the facility, marking the official transition from developer to active miner.

Sangdong, with reserves of 7.9 million tonnes, ranks among the world's most significant tungsten deposits. A planned Phase II expansion is expected to boost annual throughput capacity to 1.2 million tonnes by 2027. The market is actively pricing in this shift to a cash-flow-generating producer.

Institutional Interest Surges

Growing confidence is evident in the shareholder register. The number of invested funds jumped by more than 55% last quarter, reaching 107. Van Eck Associates was particularly active, aggressively expanding its position to hold 11.24 million shares valued at approximately $99 million.

Almonty's equity currently trades at $18.52, representing a staggering one-year gain of roughly 860%. Beyond Sangdong, the company is advancing other projects, including a capacity expansion at its Panasqueira mine in Portugal and progress at the Gentung Browns Lake project in the United States.

Investors are now looking ahead to March 19, 2026, when Almonty is scheduled to release its quarterly results. This report will provide the first concrete financial data reflecting the combined impact of production ramp-up and elevated tungsten prices. The future share price trajectory will largely depend on the company's ability to execute its planned production increase throughout the year without operational setbacks.