Almonty Industries: Profit-Taking Meets a Pentagon-Driven Wolfram Boom

Almonty shares drop 6% as institutions trim positions, but analysts remain bullish amid China's wolfram export controls and Sangdong mine ramp-up.

The disconnect at Almonty Industries is stark. On one side, analysts are issuing buy ratings and projecting a surge in earnings. On the other, the stock is sliding as some institutional holders cash in on a rally that has left the shares up more than 656% over the past year.

The Toronto-listed stock fell 6.22% to C$27.46 on Tuesday, with United Asset Strategies reportedly trimming its position. Yet the selling pressure tells only part of the story. The number of institutional funds holding Almonty has jumped by over 55% to 107, and three research houses now rate the shares a consensus "Strong Buy."

Texas Capital initiated coverage on April 17 with a buy rating and a US$25 price target, joining B. Riley Financial and DA Davidson, which set targets of US$23 and US$25 respectively in March. The optimism is underpinned by a looming supply crisis in the wolfram market that is reshaping the industry's dynamics.

China's Grip on Wolfram Tightens

The strategic backdrop has shifted dramatically. In early 2025, Beijing imposed export controls on several wolfram products, replacing its quota system with a state-controlled licensing regime that limits exports to just 15 approved companies. The impact has been swift: shipments of ammonium paratungstate (APT), a key intermediate product, collapsed from 782 tonnes in 2024 to just 243 tonnes in the first 11 months of 2025, and are now approaching zero in early 2026.

The price of APT has responded accordingly, climbing from around US$1,944 per metric tonne unit in February to roughly US$2,526 in April 2026. Japanese suppliers have already warned Samsung and SK Hynix that their stocks of tungsten hexafluoride—a gas essential for 3D NAND chip production—could run out this summer. Industry observers estimate current inventories will last only until mid-2026.

Almonty is uniquely positioned as a producer outside China. The company's wolfram ores and concentrates are explicitly exempt from new US retaliatory tariffs. And from January 1, 2027, a Pentagon mandate will require US defense contractors to source wolfram exclusively from non-Chinese suppliers. Almonty already holds a long-term offtake agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders, a major US processor based in Pennsylvania.

Sangdong Nears Commercial Output

The company is pouring its financial resources into two key projects. With cash and equivalents of US$268.4 million reported at the end of 2025, Almonty is finalizing development of the Sangdong mine in South Korea and the Gentung project in Montana.

The next major milestone arrives in May, when the quarterly report will include the first concrete production figures from Sangdong's ramp-up. The Phase 1 plant is designed to process 640,000 tonnes of ore per year, yielding around 2,300 tonnes of wolfram concentrate. DA Davidson expects the operation to reach full commercial capacity in the second quarter of 2026.

A shareholder meeting on June 8 will then address plans for a Phase 2 expansion that would double processing capacity to roughly 1.2 million tonnes of ore per year. At that scale, Sangdong could supply an estimated 40% of global wolfram demand outside China.

A Board Decision Looms

Before those production figures land, Almonty's board faces a critical decision by Wednesday. Shareholders have already authorized the management to consolidate up to five existing shares into one, though the board retains the discretion to scrap the plan entirely.

The logic behind a potential reverse split is straightforward: a higher per-share price would make the stock more palatable to institutional investors, many of which avoid equities trading below US$5. Almonty's shares are currently near a 52-week high of C$32.07, representing a gain of over 710% from a year ago—a run that has attracted significant options activity, with traders snapping up more than 5,200 call options last week, multiples of the average daily volume.

The annualized volatility now exceeds 100%, and short-selling interest is rising, with borrowing costs for the stock climbing sharply. That combination of institutional accumulation and bearish bets suggests the market is pricing in dramatic moves ahead—whether from the board's capital structure decision, the first Sangdong revenue data, or the accelerating wolfram supply crunch that is making Almonty a central player in a rapidly tightening market.