Almonty Industries Powers Up as Tungsten Supply Crisis Meets Strategic Mine Launch

South Korea's Sangdong tungsten mine restarts as U.S. tariff exemption and China's export controls create a supply shock, driving prices up 500% and attracting major investors.

The first full week of production at South Korea's Sangdong tungsten mine marks more than a historic restart after three decades of dormancy. For owner Almonty Industries, it represents a critical operational pivot perfectly timed to a global supply shock. The Canadian resource developer is now positioned at the nexus of soaring prices, strategic U.S. policy shifts, and a scramble by institutional investors to secure exposure.

A U.S. government decision has provided a crucial shield for Almonty. Washington explicitly exempted the company's tungsten ores, concentrates, and oxides from recent reciprocal tariffs. This secures a long-term supply agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders in Pennsylvania, a key supplier to defense systems, aerospace components, and semiconductor applications. The exemption's strategic weight is underscored by a looming U.S. defense mandate: starting January 1, 2027, American defense contractors must source tungsten exclusively from non-Chinese suppliers.

This policy tailwind coincides with a severe market dislocation. China, which alongside Russia and North Korea controls an estimated 95% of global tungsten supply, drastically tightened export controls at the end of 2025. The resulting supply squeeze sent the spot price for ammonium paratungstate (APT) skyrocketing by over 500% to $2,250 per metric ton by mid-March 2026. The crisis is acute for advanced manufacturing; Japanese suppliers have warned South Korean customers that deliveries of tungsten hexafluoride—a key gas for 3D NAND chip production—could stall by summer, risking inventory depletion by June.

Into this shortage steps the newly operational Sangdong mine in Gangwon Province. Phase 1 of the project is now processing approximately 640,000 tonnes of ore annually to produce about 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. A planned Phase 2, targeted for 2027, aims to double this capacity. At full output from both phases, Sangdong could supply roughly 40% of the world's tungsten demand outside of China.

The compelling convergence of geopolitics and operations has triggered a dramatic repositioning by major investors. The number of institutional funds holding Almonty stock surged by 55% last quarter to 107. Van Eck Associates now holds 11.2 million shares worth approximately $99 million. New positions have been established by Encompass Capital Advisors ($25.6 million) and Next Century Growth Investors ($16.3 million).

Analyst sentiment has hardened alongside this institutional interest. B. Riley Financial raised its price target to $23.00 from $17.00, while DA Davidson set a target of $25.00. Oppenheimer increased its target to $19.00 from $16.00, maintaining an Outperform rating. In a significant earnings revision, Diamond Equity Research nearly doubled its EPS forecast for fiscal 2026 to $0.45 from $0.23.

Financially, the company is fortified for its next phase. A reported net loss of CAD 161.9 million for 2025 is largely a paper figure, stemming from a non-cash revaluation of liabilities driven by the company's own soaring share price. Operational performance remains unaffected. Liquidity tells a stronger story: following a Nasdaq listing in July 2025 that raised $90 million and a subsequent December capital round of CAD 129.4 million, cash reserves have ballooned to CAD 268.4 million, up from CAD 7.8 million a year earlier.

This war chest funds an ambitious growth plan. In North America, the Gentung Browns Lake project in Montana targets production readiness in the second half of 2026, with an expected annual capacity of 140,000 metric tonne units (MTU). Analysts project revenue will leap from CAD 32.5 million to CAD 747.7 million in 2026, with an EBITDA margin exceeding 50%. Management's own target is even bolder: achieving a net profit margin of 60% and annual revenue of approximately CAD 1 billion by 2028.

Almonty's share price, which has advanced over 700% in the past twelve months to close at CAD 24.75 on Friday, currently trades about 18% below its 52-week high. Market observers view this as a healthy consolidation within a powerful uptrend. The company's trajectory now hinges on Sangdong reliably hitting its production targets in the coming quarters, transforming its strategic position into sustained financial performance.