Almonty Industries: Pentagon Sets the Stage as Tungsten Stock Bounces Back

Tungsten producer Almonty combines chart-driven recovery with a US defence ban on Chinese/Russian tungsten, boosting long-term growth outlook.

Almonty Industries surged roughly 6% this week, combining a technical rebound from a recent correction with a tectonic shift in US defence procurement policy. The tungsten producer now stands at the intersection of a chart-driven recovery and a fundamental catalyst that could redefine its growth trajectory for years.

Correction Turns into Launchpad

The stock had pulled back 23% from a mid-April high of 32.51 Australian dollars, hitting the lower boundary of its long-term uptrend channel. That support held firm, triggering a rally that has already recouped more than 23% of the lost ground. Over the past few trading days, the recovery accelerated, pushing the 14-day relative strength index to 92 — a level that signals extreme overbought conditions. By contrast, during the depths of the correction the RSI had retreated to neutral terrain around 52, and a bullish crossover on the RSI line has since confirmed renewed buying momentum. The MACD has yet to fully validate the move, but the short-term chart structure has clearly improved.

Washington Rewrites the Supply Chain

The bigger driver lies in Washington DC. Starting January 2027, a tightened version of the US defence procurement rule DFARS 252.225-7052 will ban defence contractors from buying tungsten powder and alloys sourced, refined, or produced in China or Russia. China currently controls more than 80% of global tungsten output, leaving builders of tanks, missiles, and electronics scrambling for alternatives. Almonty is one of the few Western miners capable of filling that gap. The company has already relocated its head office from Toronto to Dillon, Montana — a move that underscores its closeness to the Pentagon and its defence clients. It is also advancing the Gentung tungsten project in the United States.

Q1 Results Flag Operational Turnaround

The fundamental case has a growing track record. First-quarter 2026 revenue jumped 221% year-on-year to 25.4 million dollars, propelled by elevated spot prices for ammonium paratungstate and steady production from the Panasqueira mine in Portugal. Operating cash flow swung to positive 9.7 million dollars, while adjusted EBITDA reached 6.1 million Canadian dollars. At the end of March, Almonty held 259.9 million dollars in cash. The structural price rise in tungsten — driven by export controls and rising demand from tech and defence industries — continues to bolster margins.

Sangdong: The Ace in the Hole

The long-term growth engine is running in South Korea. Almonty officially inaugurated the Sangdong mine in March 2026, marking the end of the development phase. Commercial output is now ramping up from what is considered one of the largest and highest-grade tungsten deposits outside China. The first commissioning phase is complete, and the company targets full commercial production by the end of 2026. At nameplate capacity, Sangdong could become the backbone of a Western supply chain for critical industrial and military materials.

What the Charts and Fundamentals Say Next

The stock has more than doubled since the start of 2026 and is up 552% over twelve months. At 27.39 Australian dollars, it sits just below the April high of 32.51. The overbought RSI reading suggests a short-term pullback may be due, but the fundamental tailwinds — a US procurement ban, a widening supply deficit, and a mine that is finally producing — give the bull case a sturdy foundation. The key question is whether Almonty can sustain its production ramp-up before rivals close the gap. For now, the market is betting it can.