Almonty Industries Nears a Watershed Moment as Tungsten Prices Surge and Sangdong Output Begins

Tungsten prices surge 534% as China export controls bite; Almonty's Sangdong mine delivers first ore, with quarterly report due May 21.

The tungsten market is in the grip of a supply shock that has sent prices soaring to levels unseen in years, and Almonty Industries is positioned at the epicenter of the shift. With its Sangdong mine in South Korea now producing its first ore and a strategic relocation to Montana complete, the company is preparing to deliver the quarterly report that investors have been waiting for.

A Market Transformed by Chinese Export Controls

The price of ammonium paratungstate (APT) has climbed 534 percent to 2,250 US dollars per MTU by March 2026, according to the most recent data. That follows an earlier surge that pushed tungsten metal past 3,000 dollars per tonne in April, up from roughly 900 dollars at the start of the year. The catalyst is China's overhaul of its export regime. Beijing replaced its quota system with a state-controlled licensing framework that limits exporters to just 15 approved entities. The impact has been dramatic: APT exports fell from 782 tonnes in 2024 to 243 tonnes in the first eleven months of 2025, and by early 2026 they had effectively ground to a halt.

The squeeze is hitting the semiconductor industry with particular force. Japanese suppliers have warned Samsung and SK Hynix that their stocks of tungsten hexafluoride — a critical material for producing 3D-NAND chips with up to 200 layers — could run dry as soon as this summer. Without fresh supply, production lines would face an abrupt shutdown.

Sangdong Delivers First Production Data

Almonty's quarterly report, due on May 21, will for the first time include concrete output figures from Sangdong, which began operations in March. The Phase 1 facility is designed to process 640,000 tonnes of ore annually and produce around 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. Analysts at DA Davidson expect the mine to reach full capacity during the second quarter of 2026.

The ore body boasts a tungsten trioxide grade of roughly 0.51 percent — approximately three times the global average. That geological advantage gives Almonty a meaningful cost buffer, even if prices retreat from their current highs.

The market has already priced in much of the optimism. Almonty's shares have gained about 136 percent since the start of the year, trading at 28.42 Canadian dollars. The stock's annualized volatility exceeds 100 percent.

A Strategic Pivot to the United States

Almonty formally moved its headquarters from Toronto to Dillon, Montana on April 13, placing it closer to US defense agencies and the newly acquired Gentung-Browns-Lake project, which is slated to begin production in the second half of 2026. Two retired US generals now sit on the board, bringing expertise in defense procurement and national security.

The timing is no coincidence. Starting January 1, 2027, US defense contractors will be required to source tungsten exclusively from non-Chinese suppliers. The US government has explicitly exempted Almonty's tungsten ores, concentrates and oxides from retaliatory tariffs.

Morgan Stanley identified Almonty in late April as one of the few mining companies essential to the emerging space economy. Tungsten has the highest melting point of any element, making it indispensable for aerospace and defense applications.

Financial Picture and Expansion Plans

The company's balance sheet shows roughly 268 million US dollars in cash and equivalents. However, Almonty reported a net loss of 161.9 million Canadian dollars for the full year 2025, driven largely by non-cash valuation adjustments on derivatives triggered by the sharp rise in its stock price.

Analysts project a dramatic revenue swing in 2026, from 32.5 million to 747.7 million Canadian dollars, with expected EBITDA of 488 million — a margin above 50 percent. Phase 2 of Sangdong would double processing capacity to 1.2 million tonnes of ore annually, with further details expected at the annual general meeting on June 8.

At full capacity, Sangdong could supply roughly 40 percent of global tungsten demand outside China. Almonty also applied on April 24, 2026 to list new securities on the Australian Stock Exchange, where trading volumes around that date were unusually high.

The question hanging over the stock is whether Sangdong can reach full production quickly enough to justify the valuation. The next few weeks will provide the first real data point.