Almonty Industries: Index Funds Are Buying, But the Stock Is Treading Water

Wolfram producer Almonty enters Russell 1000 on Monday despite shares falling 18% in past month. Sangdong mine delivers cash flow; molybdenum drilling adds catalyst.

Almonty Industries enters the Russell 1000 on Monday, a milestone that normally triggers a wave of passive buying. Yet the wolfram producer’s shares closed Friday at C$23.00, down 18% over the past month and roughly 31% below their 52-week high. The contradiction between an index promotion and a slipping stock price captures the market’s current wariness toward mining developers that have, for once, actually delivered on production.

The Vancouver-based company has built a formidable financial cushion. In early June it closed an oversubscribed 2.25% convertible bond due July 2031, raising net proceeds of approximately US$773 million. The conversion price of roughly US$27.40 per share represented a 32.5% premium to the reference share price on June 4. That capital sits on top of cash and equivalents of nearly C$260 million as of the end of March, giving management plenty of runway for the expansion plans now underway.

Sangdong moves from development to cash flow

The Sangdong mine in South Korea — one of the few significant tungsten sources outside China — began commercial operations in March. The first-quarter numbers bear out the transition: revenue surged 221% year-on-year to C$25.4 million, while operating cash flow came in at C$9.7 million and adjusted EBITDA reached C$6.1 million. The net loss of C$5.3 million was largely driven by non-cash valuation expenses tied to the rising share price, not operating weakness.

Phase 1 processing capacity stands at 640,000 tonnes of ore per year, yielding about 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. A Phase 2 expansion is scheduled for 2027, which the company says will double throughput. Management refers to the broader plan as the “Korean Trinity” — an integrated value chain for strategic minerals in South Korea.

Molybdenum drilling adds a second leg

Alongside the tungsten ramp-up, Almonty is advancing its Sangdong molybdenum project. A drilling campaign designed to confirm historical resources has completed 37% of the planned 26 holes, with initial assays showing grades consistent with earlier work. The timing is favorable: the spot price for molybdenum has climbed nearly 24% over the past year, and governments are increasingly urging private companies to secure supply chains for strategic metals.

The molybdenum drill results due later this year could provide the next near-term catalyst. For now, the stock sits below its 50-day moving average but still comfortably above the 200-day line of C$18.04. The relative strength index of 32 signals oversold territory, though analysts note the stock is not yet in a deep technical overshoot. On a one-year view, Almonty has still gained 296%, a reminder that the long-term trend remains intact.

Russell inclusion: a technical boost in a softening market

Monday’s addition to the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 compels index-following funds and ETFs to add the stock to their portfolios. That structural demand arrives at a price that has already corrected sharply from its 52-week peak. Whether the C$23.00 level holds as support will depend on whether the passive buying can absorb selling pressure from traders who have been reducing positions during the recent slide.

The market capitalisation of C$7.57 billion has made the Russell eligibility possible in the first place. A recently published analyst price target of C$25.00 carries a buy recommendation, but the stock will need to hold those gains beyond the immediate index rebalancing window. Next on the calendar are the remaining molybdenum drilling results from Sangdong, which could shift the narrative from “capital-rich developer” to “strategic metals champion” — if the assays match expectations.