Almonty Industries: From Developer to Dominant Tungsten Supplier

Almonty Industries' Sangdong mine is now operational, targeting 40% of non-Chinese tungsten supply. With U.S. tariff exemptions and a 2027 defense mandate, institutional investment is surging.

The transformation of Almonty Industries from a project developer into a cornerstone of Western critical mineral supply is accelerating. This shift is being validated by both capital markets and geopolitics, as the company's strategic importance becomes impossible to ignore. With its flagship mine now operational and ambitious financial targets set, Almonty is capitalizing on a historic supply crunch for tungsten.

Institutional Conviction Meets Geopolitical Tailwinds

Major investment funds are placing aggressive bets on this transition. In the last quarter, the number of funds holding Almonty stock surged by 55 percent to 107. Van ECK Associates led the charge, expanding its position by over 13,000 percent to 11.2 million shares, a stake worth approximately $99 million. New entrants like Encompass Capital Advisors and Next Century Growth Investors also established significant positions.

This institutional interest is underpinned by a crucial regulatory advantage. Following a detailed review of recent U.S. tariff orders, Almonty has confirmed its tungsten ores, concentrates, and oxides are exempt from new punitive duties. This exemption not only secures trade flows but underscores the metal's importance to U.S. national defense and critical manufacturing. The company's long-term offtake agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders (GTP) in Pennsylvania guarantees access to this vital market.

Operational Foundation for Billion-Dollar Ambitions

The core of Almonty's growth story is the Sangdong mine in South Korea. Phase one is now in full production, processing 640,000 tonnes of ore annually to yield about 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. This marks the historic site's return to operation after three decades. A planned expansion by the end of 2027 is set to double this output, potentially allowing Sangdong alone to supply up to 40 percent of global tungsten demand outside of China. The operation is designed to remain profitable even if prices fall to $300 per metric ton unit (MTU).

Management has laid out ambitious financial targets reflecting this scale. By 2028, the company is targeting annual revenue of around one billion Canadian dollars. Driven by high-grade production and a global supply deficit, net margins are projected to reach an impressive 60 percent at full capacity. EBITDA is forecast to catapult to approximately 844 million CAD by 2027. Analysts expect the enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) multiple to compress from 24.8 this year to a more favorable 10.1 in 2027.

A Market Primed for Western Supply

The timing of Almonty's production ramp is exceptionally precise. The company is advancing its Gentung Browns Lake project in Montana, with production slated to begin in the second half of 2026. This aligns perfectly with a U.S. defense mandate requiring American military contractors to source tungsten exclusively from non-Chinese suppliers starting January 1, 2027.

The market environment is extraordinarily supportive. Structural shortages and geopolitical tensions have triggered a super-cycle, pushing tungsten prices toward $3,000 per MTU, far above historical averages. The benchmark price for Ammonium Paratungstate (APT) had already skyrocketed 534 percent by mid-March 2026, reaching $2,250 per metric tonne.

Analysts have responded to this potent mix of operational progress and favorable market dynamics by raising price targets. Oppenheimer set a target of $19, B. Riley Financial sees $23, and DA Davidson projects $25. Diamond Equity Research doubled its 2026 EPS estimate to $0.45.

The company's share price reflects the long-term optimism, boasting a twelve-month gain of approximately 616 percent, though a recent monthly pullback of nearly 11 percent is viewed by some as a strategic entry point.

The challenge now is operational execution. For fiscal 2025, revenue grew 13 percent to 32.5 million CAD, but high administrative costs resulted in an adjusted EBITDA loss of 17 million CAD. Management must prove Sangdong can reliably hit target volumes. A cash position exceeding 268 million CAD provides a solid foundation for this next critical phase. Together with its existing production in Portugal, Almonty is establishing itself as an indispensable link in the West's supply chain for critical minerals.