Almonty Industries Faces a Pivotal Week as Board Weighs Reverse Split and First Output Data Looms

Almonty shares surge 720% amid tungsten supply crisis; board weighs reverse split by April 30 as Sangdong mine output nears first quarterly report.

The options market has been flashing unusually bright signals on Almonty Industries. Late last week, traders snapped up more than 5,200 call options on the Canadian-listed miner, dwarfing the average daily volume and reflecting the heightened volatility that has come to define the stock. With annualized volatility north of 100 percent, the shares have been on a tear — up nearly 150 percent since January 1 and more than 720 percent over the past twelve months, closing recently at C$29.94.

That blistering rally has been fueled by a structural shift in the global tungsten market, where Chinese export controls have sent prices soaring and forced Western governments to scramble for alternative supply. Almonty, with assets in South Korea and the United States, has positioned itself squarely in that gap.

A Board Deadline and a Capital Structure Decision

The first concrete test of how management intends to navigate this moment arrives this week. By April 30, the board must decide whether to execute a reverse stock split — a move shareholders have already authorized. The ratio could reach as high as five old shares for one new one, though the timing and exact terms remain at the board's discretion. The board also retains the option to scrap the plan entirely.

The logic behind a reverse split is straightforward: reducing the share count would lift the per-share price, potentially making the stock more palatable for institutional investors who often avoid sub-$5 names. The market will get more clarity on the company's future capital structure at the annual general meeting scheduled for June 8.

Sangdong Delivers — and the Numbers Are Coming

Beyond the boardroom decision, May brings a far more fundamental catalyst. Almonty's quarterly report will include the first concrete production figures from the Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea, which officially began operations in March. The Phase 1 facility is designed to process 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, yielding approximately 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate.

Analysts at DA Davidson expect the operation to reach full commercial capacity by the second quarter of 2026. Phase 2, already planned for 2027, would double processing capacity to 1.2 million tonnes of ore per year. At full output, Sangdong could supply roughly 40 percent of the world's tungsten demand outside China.

The mine's economics are underpinned by an ore grade of about 0.51 percent tungsten trioxide — roughly three times the global average. That geological advantage, combined with a favorable cost structure, gives Almonty a significant margin cushion even if tungsten prices retreat from current highs.

A Market in Turmoil

And those prices have been anything but stable. The cost of ammonium paratungstate (APT), a key tungsten intermediate, has surged from around US$1,944 per metric tonne unit in February to approximately US$2,526 in April 2026. That represents a dramatic acceleration from earlier in the year, when APT had already climbed to US$2,250 per metric tonne unit by mid-March.

The root cause lies in Beijing's tightening grip on the tungsten supply chain. In early 2025, China imposed export controls on several tungsten products. The Ministry of Commerce subsequently replaced the existing quota system with a state-controlled export licensing regime limited to just 15 approved companies. The impact has been stark: APT exports collapsed from 782 tonnes in 2024 to just 243 tonnes in the first eleven months of 2025, and by early 2026 they had approached zero.

The ripple effects are already reaching the semiconductor industry. Japanese suppliers have warned Samsung and SK Hynix that their stocks of tungsten hexafluoride — an essential material for 3D NAND chip production — could run dry as early as this summer.

Pentagon Mandate and a Molybdenum Cushion

Structural demand from the US defense sector provides an additional tailwind. Starting January 1, 2027, a Pentagon mandate will require US defense contractors to source tungsten exclusively from non-Chinese suppliers. Almonty is already positioning to capture that demand. The US government has exempted the company's tungsten ores and concentrates from retaliatory tariffs, contingent on a long-term supply agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders in Pennsylvania.

Meanwhile, the company's recently relocated corporate headquarters — moved in mid-April from Toronto to Dillon, Montana — sits adjacent to the newly acquired Gentung tungsten project. Production there is expected to begin in late 2026, further deepening Almonty's US footprint.

The company has also secured a long-term molybdenum supply agreement that kicks in this year. The contract includes a guaranteed minimum price that ensures annual revenue of at least US$234 million, completely independent of any future swings in the tungsten market.

The Financial Picture

Almonty's revenue for fiscal 2025 reached C$32.5 million, reflecting the benefit of higher tungsten prices. However, the company also reported a net loss of nearly C$162 million. Management has been quick to note that the bulk of that loss stems from non-cash valuation adjustments on derivatives tied directly to the sharp rise in the company's own stock price — a paper charge rather than a cash drain.

Analyst sentiment remains firmly bullish. Texas Capital, DA Davidson, and B. Riley Financial all rate the stock a buy, with price targets ranging from US$23 to US$25. The consensus among three analysts tracked by the market is a "Strong Buy."

With the reverse split decision due by Wednesday, first production data arriving in May, and the annual meeting in June, Almonty is entering a defining quarter. The board's choice on the capital structure will set the stage for what comes next — but the real story will be written in the production numbers from Sangdong and the trajectory of a tungsten market that shows no signs of cooling.