Almonty Industries Faces a Pivotal Fortnight as Board Deadline and First Output Data Converge

Almonty Industries nears first production data from Sangdong mine in May, while a board decision on a reverse stock split looms, as Western tungsten demand surges.

The tungsten market is tightening by the week, and Almonty Industries is positioning itself as the Western world’s most credible alternative to Chinese supply. But before investors can celebrate, the company must clear two immediate hurdles: a board decision on a potential reverse stock split and the release of its first production figures from the Sangdong mine in South Korea.

Sangdong’s First Test Arrives in May

The Sangdong operation, which began processing ore in March, is now approaching its first real milestone. The quarterly report due in May will contain the initial production data from the facility, offering the market its first glimpse of whether operational reality matches the ambitious projections.

Phase 1 of Sangdong is designed to process approximately 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, yielding around 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. What sets this mine apart from global peers is its average ore grade of roughly 0.51% tungsten trioxide — about three times the global average. Analysts at DA Davidson expect the mine to reach full commercial capacity by the second quarter of 2026.

A planned Phase 2 expansion, targeted for 2027, would double processing capacity to roughly 1.2 million tonnes of ore per year. At full utilization, Sangdong would supply approximately 40% of global tungsten demand outside China.

A Market Squeeze That Plays Into Almonty’s Hands

The macro backdrop could hardly be more favorable. The price of ammonium paratungstate surged from around $1,944 per tonne in February to approximately $2,526 per tonne in April 2026. The catalyst: Beijing replaced its quota system with a state-controlled export licensing regime involving just 15 approved companies. The result has been dramatic — APT exports collapsed from 782 tonnes in 2024 to 243 tonnes in the first eleven months of 2025, and by early 2026 they were approaching zero.

The shortage is already hitting the semiconductor industry. Japanese suppliers have warned Samsung and SK Hynix that their stocks of tungsten hexafluoride — essential for 3D NAND chip production — could be exhausted by this summer.

Almonty is structurally insulated from US trade friction. Washington has explicitly exempted the company’s tungsten ores, concentrates, and oxides from US retaliatory tariffs, backed by a long-term supply agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders in Pennsylvania.

Deepening US Roots

The company is doubling down on its American presence. Almonty is relocating its corporate headquarters from Toronto, Canada, to Dillon, Montana — home to the recently acquired Gentung tungsten project. Nearly half of the company’s production is reserved for US buyers, a strategic allocation that aligns with Washington’s push to secure critical mineral supply chains.

The US defense sector relies on tungsten for armor-piercing munitions, while semiconductor and aerospace manufacturers also depend on the metal. Gentung is expected to resume operations by late 2026, giving Almonty production capacity on two continents serving Western customers directly.

The Cost of Building a Supply Chain

This transformation does not come cheap. For fiscal 2025, Almonty reported a net loss of roughly 162 million Canadian dollars on revenue of just 32.5 million dollars. Heavy spending on mine development and the Nasdaq listing weighed on the bottom line.

The stock has reflected both the promise and the pain. Shares currently trade at C$27.71, representing a gain of roughly 130% since the start of the year but sitting 13.6% below the 52-week high set on April 17. Over a 12-month horizon, the stock has surged 660%, though it has shed about 13% in the past seven days as profit-taking sets in. Annualized volatility exceeds 100%.

A Board Decision and an Analyst Stampede

Today, April 30, marks an internal deadline: the board must decide whether to proceed with a reverse stock split. Shareholders have already approved the measure, with a ratio of up to five old shares for one new share. However, the board retains the option to abandon the plan entirely. Further details on the future capital structure are expected at the annual general meeting on June 8.

Three research houses rate the stock a “Strong Buy.” Texas Capital initiated coverage on April 17 with a price target of US$25. B. Riley Financial and DA Davidson had previously set targets of US$23 and US$25 respectively in March.

The May quarterly report will determine whether Sangdong passes its first real test — more than three decades after the mine was originally shuttered. For a company that has already survived the long journey from developer to producer, the next few weeks will be decisive.