Almonty Industries Faces a Fork in the Road as Tungsten Prices Surge and a Moly-Backed Revenue Floor Takes Shape

Almonty Industries navigates a tightening tungsten market with its Sangdong mine operational, a molybdenum revenue floor, and a board decision on a reverse stock split.

The tungsten market is tightening by the week, and Almonty Industries finds itself at the centre of a supply narrative that stretches from the chip factories of East Asia to the Pentagon's procurement?? in Washington. With the Sangdong mine in South Korea now officially operational, the company is navigating a delicate moment: a board deadline on a potential reverse stock split, a guaranteed revenue stream from a new molybdenum contract, and a commodity price that has climbed to multi-year highs.

The board has until Thursday to decide whether to implement a reverse stock split of up to five old shares for one new share, a move already authorised by shareholders. The alternative is to scrap the plan entirely. The logic behind the split is straightforward: lifting the per-share price above the five-dollar threshold makes the stock accessible to institutional investors who typically avoid sub-$5 equities. The number of funds holding Almonty has already jumped by more than 55 percent to 107, underscoring the growing institutional interest.

A Molybdenum Deal That Changes the Math

Beyond the tungsten story, Almonty has locked in a molybdenum supply agreement that provides a rare layer of financial certainty. The contract, which takes effect later this year, includes a guaranteed minimum price that ensures annual revenue of at least $234 million. This is not a forecast but a contractual floor, insulating the company from any downturn in the tungsten market. The company ended fiscal 2025 with $268 million in cash, raised through equity offerings on the Nasdaq, giving it ample runway for the next phase of expansion.

Sangdong Ramps Up as Chinese Export Controls Bite

The Sangdong mine completed its initial commissioning phase at the end of March 2026. The operation is now processing 640,000 tonnes of ore per year, producing roughly 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. At full capacity, Sangdong is expected to cover about 40 percent of global tungsten demand outside China. The ore grade stands at approximately 0.51 percent tungsten trioxide — roughly three times the global average — which gives Almonty a significant margin cushion even if prices soften. Analysts at DA Davidson expect the mine to reach full commercial capacity by the second quarter of 2026.

The macro backdrop is providing powerful tailwinds. The benchmark price for ammonium paratungstate (APT) has surged from around $1,944 per tonne in February to approximately $2,526 per tonne in April 2026. The catalyst: China replaced its quota system with a state-controlled licensing process at the start of 2025. Only 15 approved companies are now permitted to export. The result has been dramatic — APT exports fell from 782 tonnes in 2024 to just 243 tonnes in the first eleven months of 2025, and by early 2026 they had virtually ground to a halt.

The shortages are now rippling through the semiconductor industry. Japanese suppliers have warned Samsung and SK Hynix that their inventories of tungsten hexafluoride — a critical material for 3D NAND production — could run dry as early as this summer. There is no practical substitute. BMO analysts are forecasting a further supply deficit in 2026.

Pentagon Mandate and US Expansion

Geopolitics is reinforcing the supply squeeze. From 1 January 2027, US defence contractors will be required to source tungsten exclusively from non-Chinese suppliers. Almonty’s tungsten ores and concentrates are explicitly exempt from the new US retaliatory tariffs. The company already holds a long-term offtake agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders, a leading US processor based in Pennsylvania.

The Gentung project in Montana is expected to be production-ready in the second half of 2026. If it proceeds as planned, it would mark the first domestic tungsten production in the United States in over a decade. Almonty has also relocated its corporate headquarters to Montana, underscoring its commitment to building a US-based tungsten supply chain.

What Comes Next: Production Data and Shareholder Meeting

The first concrete production figures from Sangdong’s ramp-up phase are due on 21 May, when Almonty releases its quarterly report. That will be followed by the annual general meeting on 8 June, where management is expected to provide updates on Phase 2 expansion plans — which would double processing capacity to 1.2 million tonnes per year by 2027 — and the integration of the US operations.

The stock currently trades at C$26.85 after a modest daily decline, but the year-to-date gain remains a staggering 630 percent. The annualised volatility sits above 100 percent, reflecting the extreme swings that have accompanied the company’s transformation from developer to producer. Three analyst houses rate the stock a consensus "Strong Buy."

For now, all eyes are on the boardroom. The reverse split decision due Thursday will signal whether management believes the current share price is ready to stand on its own — or whether it needs a structural nudge to attract the next wave of institutional capital.