Almonty Industries: Expansion Vote Looms as Stock Retreats and Analyst Turns Bullish

Shareholders to vote on doubling Sangdong capacity to 1.2M tonnes/year as US military prepares to ban Chinese tungsten. Stock down 20% but up 500% YoY.

Almonty Industries shareholders will gather in Toronto on June 9 to vote on a plan that could reshape the global tungsten supply chain. The proposal calls for doubling processing capacity at the Sangdong mine in South Korea to 1.2 million tonnes per year by 2027, a move that would position the operation to supply roughly 40% of the world's tungsten demand outside China. The timing is no coincidence: starting in January next year, the U.S. military will be barred from using Chinese tungsten in any of its equipment.

The market has taken a more cautious view of late. Almonty's shares have fallen about 20% over the past month and slipped another 11% in the most recent week to trade at A$24.35, leaving them roughly 25% below the 52-week high. Despite the pullback, the stock remains up more than 500% on a 12-month basis — a reminder of how far the company has come from its development-stage roots.

The recent selling pressure stems from a first-quarter earnings miss. While revenue more than tripled to US$25.4 million, the net loss narrowed only to US$5.3 million, falling short of analyst expectations. On the positive side, operating cash flow swung deeply into positive territory at US$9.7 million, compared with significant cash burn in the year-ago period.

That operational inflection has not gone unnoticed. Diamond Equity Research recently lifted its earnings-per-share estimate for fiscal 2027 to US$1.68 from US$1.43, citing the company's accelerating production ramp and improving cost structure. The upgrade reflects confidence that the short-term profit disappointment is just that — short-term.

The revenue surge was driven by an extraordinary rally in tungsten prices. Ammonium paratungstate (APT) prices rocketed from roughly US$860 per metric tonne in January to more than US$3,140 by early May. With Sangdong now producing commercially after completing its initial commissioning phase, Almonty is capturing those higher spot prices directly.

Adjacent to the tungsten operation lies another opportunity. Almonty has signed an exclusive offtake agreement with SeAH M&S, South Korea's largest molybdenum processor, which will purchase all material produced. A floor price of US$19 per pound provides a safety net, and at full capacity the project is expected to yield around 5,600 tonnes of molybdenum annually. Production is slated to begin by the end of 2026.

To cement its Western supply-chain credentials, Almonty recently moved its head office from Toronto to Dillon, Montana. The relocation brings management closer to U.S. defense agencies and industrial customers, and also aligns with the company's Gentung project in Montana, which is expected to resume production later this year.

The strategic backdrop is only becoming more favourable. U.S. procurement restrictions on defence goods and Chinese export curbs are forcing Western buyers to diversify their tungsten sources. Almonty's Sangdong mine and its Montana operations plug directly into that gap, making the company a key player in the drive to reduce reliance on Beijing.

Institutional investors appear to be taking note. The number of funds holding positions in Almonty has jumped to 107, up sharply in recent months. The June 9 vote will be the next major catalyst: if shareholders approve the expansion, the company will have a clear path to becoming one of the West's dominant tungsten suppliers.