Almonty Industries: Capitalizing on the Global Tungsten Supply Shift

Almonty Industries launches the Sangdong tungsten mine, a key Western supply chain move. The mine could meet 40% of non-Chinese demand by 2027, amid soaring prices and strong analyst support.

The recent commencement of operations at the Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea, after three decades of dormancy, represents a significant strategic development for Almonty Industries. This move positions the company at the forefront of a Western push to secure critical mineral supply chains, directly challenging China's overwhelming market dominance, which currently accounts for approximately 88% of global tungsten supply.

Geopolitical Significance and Market Dynamics

The official opening ceremony, attended by U.S. embassy officials, underscored the project's geopolitical importance. Western governments are actively seeking to diversify sources for essential materials like tungsten, a metal crucial for defense, aerospace, and high-technology applications. This urgency is reflected in volatile market prices; since the start of the year, the cost of tungsten concentrate in China has skyrocketed by nearly 124%. In Europe, prices for Ammonium Paratungstate (APT) in Rotterdam have multiplied compared to early 2024 levels, driven by strategic stockpiling and defense-related contracts.

Operational Milestone and Expansion Roadmap

With the first phase of commissioning now complete, the Sangdong facility is processing about 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, yielding an estimated 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. Management is already looking ahead to a planned expansion in 2027, which aims to double processing capacity to 1.2 million tonnes of ore. This enhanced output could theoretically satisfy up to 40% of global tungsten demand outside of China.

Financial Performance: A Story of Two Halves

The company's recent financial results for fiscal 2025 present a complex picture. While revenue increased from US$28.8 million to US$32.5 million, Almonty reported a substantial net loss of US$161.9 million. This loss was primarily driven by non-cash accounting adjustments totaling US$97.4 million, stemming from the revaluation of embedded derivative liabilities triggered by a sharp rise in the company's own share price. The adjusted EBITDA stood at negative US$17.1 million, reflecting the significant start-up costs associated with projects in South Korea and Portugal.

Analyst Sentiment and Share Price Momentum

The fundamental supply-demand narrative has fueled considerable optimism among market observers. Almonty's share price has surged more than 87% since the beginning of the year, recently trading at C$22.51. Several financial institutions have updated their outlooks accordingly:

• Oppenheimer: Raised its price target from US$16.00 to US$19.00, maintaining an "Outperform" rating.
• DA Davidson: Reiterated a "Buy" recommendation with a target of US$25.00.
• VanEck: Significantly increased its stake during the fourth quarter, holding over 11.2 million shares.

The operational launch at Sangdong establishes a foundation for future cash generation. The scheduled capacity doubling by 2027 provides a clear pathway for Almonty to structurally address the growing tungsten requirements of Western defense and high-tech industrial sectors.