Almonty Industries Builds a Two-Pronged Strategy as Tungsten Prices Shatter Records

Almonty Industries capitalizes on a historic tungsten supply crisis with its Sangdong mine, a $234M molybdenum floor, and a US defense pivot.

The tungsten market is in the grip of a supply crisis not seen in decades, and Almonty Industries is positioning itself as one of the few Western beneficiaries. Ammonium paratungstate (APT), the industry's benchmark, has surged past $3,000 per metric tonne unit (mtu) — a more than 230% gain from around $900 at the end of 2025. The catalyst is a double-barrelled shock: China's tightening grip on exports and a formal US national security finding that has turned tungsten procurement into a defence priority.

A Revenue Floor from an Unlikely Source

While the tungsten rally grabs headlines, Almonty has quietly locked in a financial safety net from a different commodity. A newly signed molybdenum offtake agreement guarantees minimum annual revenues of $234 million, regardless of where tungsten prices head. The contract, which takes effect this year, provides a contractual floor — not a forecast — giving the company a stable earnings baseline as it ramps up production.

That cushion sits atop a well-capitalised balance sheet. Almonty closed fiscal 2025 with $268 million in cash, raised through Nasdaq equity offerings. The war chest gives management room to execute on both its Korean and American projects without being forced to sell into a volatile market.

Sangdong Delivers as China's Export Machine Seizes Up

The centrepiece of Almonty's strategy is the Sangdong mine in South Korea, which completed its Phase 1 commissioning in March 2026. The processing plant is designed to handle 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, yielding around 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. At full capacity, Sangdong would supply roughly 40% of global tungsten demand outside China.

The economics are bolstered by exceptional ore grades. Sangdong's deposit averages 0.51% tungsten trioxide — approximately three times the global average — providing a significant margin buffer even if prices retreat. DA Davidson analysts expect the operation to reach full commercial capacity by the second quarter of 2026. A Phase 2 expansion slated for 2027 would double throughput to 1.2 million tonnes per year and push concentrate output to around 4,600 tonnes.

The timing could hardly be better. China replaced its tungsten quota system with a state-controlled licensing regime in early 2025, restricting exports to just 15 authorised companies. The impact has been dramatic: APT exports collapsed from 782 tonnes in 2024 to just 243 tonnes in the first eleven months of 2025, and by early 2026 they had ground to near zero. The shortages are now rippling through supply chains — Japanese suppliers have warned Samsung and SK Hynix that stocks of tungsten hexafluoride, essential for 3D NAND chip production, could run dry this summer. BMO analysts forecast a continued supply deficit through 2026.

Montana Beckons as Pentagon Deadline Looms

Almonty's geographic pivot is accelerating. On April 13, 2026, the company relocated its headquarters from Toronto to Dillon, Montana — a move that places it closer to US defence agencies and industrial partners. The symbolism is backed by hard deadlines: from January 1, 2027, US military contractors must source tungsten exclusively from non-Chinese suppliers.

The Gentung project at Browns Lake in Montana, with a total resource of 7.53 million tonnes, is targeting production readiness in the second half of 2026. At full output, it is expected to deliver around 140,000 mtu annually, making it the first domestic tungsten production in the United States in over a decade. Almonty's tungsten ores and concentrates have been explicitly exempted from the new US retaliatory tariffs, and the company holds a long-term offtake agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders, a major Pennsylvania-based processor.

The strategic importance of the region was underscored on April 29, when Red Mountain Mining (ASX: RMX) secured an exclusive option on the adjacent Pioneer Tungsten project — a sign that industry interest in Montana's tungsten belt is building.

Stock Volatility Masks a Structural Shift

Almonty's shares have ridden the tungsten wave, gaining more than 600% in Canadian dollar terms over the past twelve months. But the ride has been bumpy: annualised volatility exceeds 100%, and the stock has already given back roughly 16% from its mid-April high.

The number of institutional funds holding Almonty has jumped more than 55% to 107, and three analyst houses rate the stock an average of "Strong Buy." The next catalyst comes in May, when the company releases its quarterly report — the first to include concrete production data from Sangdong's ramp-up phase. On June 8, the annual general meeting will provide updates on Phase 2 and the integration of US operations.

A more immediate decision hangs over the boardroom: management must decide today whether to implement a shareholder-approved reverse stock split of up to five-to-one, or let the authorisation lapse. The outcome will signal how the company views its share price trajectory as it transitions from developer to producer in a market where supply is shrinking and demand is about to become mandatory.