Almonty Industries: Board Faces Wednesday Deadline as Tungsten Supply Squeeze Intensifies

Almonty board must decide on reverse stock split by April 30 as Sangdong mine prepares May production data, with tungsten supply crunch and Pentagon demand boosting strategic value.

The clock is ticking for Almonty Industries' board of directors. By Wednesday, the management team must decide whether to execute a reverse stock split that shareholders have already authorized — a move that could reshape the company's capital structure just as its flagship Sangdong mine prepares to deliver its first production figures.

The shareholder mandate allows for a consolidation of up to five existing shares into one, with the exact ratio and timing left to the board's discretion. If no action is taken by April 30, the authorization expires entirely. The rationale is straightforward: a higher per-share price typically attracts institutional investors who shun stocks trading below $5. The strategy appears to be gaining traction already — the number of institutional funds holding Almonty has jumped more than 55 percent to 107, signaling that interest from big money is building regardless of whether the consolidation goes ahead.

Sangdong Output Data Arrives in May

Operationally, a far more consequential milestone is imminent. The quarterly report due in May will contain the first concrete production figures from the ramp-up at Sangdong in South Korea. The Phase-1 facility is designed to process approximately 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, yielding around 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. DA Davidson expects the operation to reach full commercial capacity as early as the second quarter of 2026 — just weeks away.

What gives Sangdong a structural edge is its ore grade. At roughly 0.51 percent tungsten trioxide, the deposit contains about three times the global average concentration. That provides Almonty with considerable margin for error even if tungsten prices soften. With roughly $268 million in cash on hand — raised through Nasdaq equity offerings — the company is well positioned to fund its next growth phase.

The annual general meeting on June 8 will outline plans for a Phase-2 expansion that would double processing capacity to 1.2 million tonnes of ore per year by 2027. At that scale, Sangdong could potentially supply an estimated 40 percent of the world's tungsten demand outside China.

Pentagon Mandate Adds Strategic Urgency

The macro environment is delivering powerful tailwinds. China replaced its quota system with a state-controlled licensing regime at the start of 2025, allowing just 15 authorized companies to export tungsten products. The impact has been dramatic: APT exports collapsed from 782 tonnes in 2024 to just 243 tonnes in the first 11 months of 2025, and are now approaching zero. The price of ammonium paratungstate — a key tungsten intermediate — has surged from roughly $1,944 per metric tonne unit in February to about $2,526 in April 2026.

The supply crunch is already hitting the semiconductor industry. Japanese suppliers have warned Samsung and SK Hynix that their inventories of tungsten hexafluoride — essential for 3D NAND chip production — could be exhausted this summer. Washington has explicitly exempted Almonty's tungsten ores, concentrates and oxides from US retaliatory tariffs, backed by a long-term supply agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders in Pennsylvania. Starting January 1, 2027, a Pentagon mandate will require US defense contractors to source tungsten exclusively from non-Chinese suppliers — a rule that positions Almonty as a critical alternative.

Analyst Consensus Points Higher

Wall Street is firmly behind the stock. Eight analysts rate it a buy, with none recommending a sale. Texas Capital initiated coverage on April 17 with a $25 price target and subsequently upgraded the stock to "Strong Buy." DA Davidson and B. Riley Financial see fair value at $25 and $23 respectively, while Oppenheimer rates it "Outperform" with a $19 target.

The shares currently trade at C$27.71, roughly 14 percent below the 52-week high of C$32.07 set on April 17. The stock has surged more than 130 percent since the start of the year, and over 710 percent from its year-ago level. Last week, traders snapped up more than 5,200 call options — many multiples of the average daily volume — reflecting annualized volatility above 100 percent.

The board's decision on Wednesday and the Sangdong production figures in May will test whether this remarkable run has further to go.