Almonty Industries: A Wolfram Producer's Deadline and a New Buy Rating

Almonty Industries surges as new U.S. defense rules and a severe tungsten shortage boost its mines in Korea and Montana, backed by fresh analyst coverage.

Shares of Canadian tungsten producer Almonty Industries have surged nearly tenfold over the past year, a rally now underscored by fresh analyst coverage and a looming corporate decision. Texas Capital initiated coverage on April 20, 2026, with a "Buy" rating, citing soaring tungsten prices as a key catalyst. This endorsement arrives as the company's board faces a deadline to decide on a potential reverse stock split by April 30.

The board has been authorized to consolidate shares at a ratio of up to five-to-one, with management retaining discretion on the exact factor and timing. Such a move would reduce the share count and proportionally lift the stock price, a step often seen as a precursor to attracting more institutional investment.

The fundamental driver remains a severe structural shortage in the tungsten market. The benchmark price for ammonium paratungstate currently sits at $2,250 per metric tonne unit (MTU), a staggering 534% increase over the twelve-month average. Texas Capital analysts peg the spot price even higher, at around $3,000 per MTU. This scarcity is intensified by China's historical control of roughly 80% of global supply and a U.S. mandate, effective January 1, 2027, requiring defense contractors to source tungsten from non-Chinese suppliers.

Almonty is uniquely positioned to capitalize on this shift. Its flagship Sangdong mine in South Korea commenced operations in mid-March, with the processing plant officially opening on April 1. Running at full Phase 1 capacity, it processes approximately 640,000 tonnes of ore annually to yield about 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. Commercial production is slated for Q2 2026. The company also holds a binding supply agreement with Tungsten Parts Wyoming for a minimum of 40 tonnes of tungsten oxide monthly, exclusively for U.S. defense systems including missiles, drones, and munitions.

Further solidifying its U.S. strategic role, Almonty has secured an explicit exemption from new counter-tariffs for its tungsten ores, concentrates, and oxides. It supplies Global Tungsten & Powders in Pennsylvania under a long-term contract. On April 13, 2026, the company relocated its corporate headquarters from Toronto to Dillon, Montana, moving closer to both U.S. regulators and defense partners.

This shift also places management nearer to the recently acquired Gentung Browns Lake project in Beaverhead County. The site holds mineral resources of 7.53 million tonnes and is planned to have an annual capacity of roughly 140,000 MTU. Almonty is targeting a production start in the second half of 2026, pending permitting, which would mark the first domestic U.S. tungsten production in over a decade. The company plans to use refurbished equipment from Spain to accelerate the restart.

Financing analyses from April 21, 2026, estimate that Sangdong and Gentung together could generate between $466 million and $830 million in additional revenue in the current fiscal year, with estimated net margins of 60% at full production. In Portugal, the company aims to expand output at the Panasqueira mine to approximately 124,000 MTU annually.

Trading at CAD $30.50, Almonty's stock sits just under 5% below its 52-week high of CAD $32.07, set on April 17. Since the start of the year, the share price has advanced over 150%. The price-to-book ratio of 22.9 indicates a rich valuation, though a discounted cash flow model points to a fair value of CAD $43.36.

Investors are now looking to several imminent milestones. The quarterly report on May 21 will provide the first production figures from Sangdong's ramp-up. The annual general meeting on June 8 is expected to detail plans for a Phase 2 expansion at Sangdong, which could double tungsten output by 2027. In the near term, however, the permitting progress in Montana remains the critical short-term factor determining whether the 2026 production target can be met.