Almonty Industries: A Wolfram Producer at the Nexus of Chips and Defense

Almonty Industries capitalizes on a tungsten supply crisis, becoming a critical non-Chinese supplier for semiconductors and U.S. defense, with its stock soaring 167% YTD.

A perfect storm of geopolitical and industrial pressures is creating an unprecedented opportunity for Almonty Industries. The Canadian-turned-American tungsten miner is now positioned as a critical supplier to two of the world's most strategic sectors: semiconductor manufacturing and defense. This dual demand is fueling a dramatic re-rating of the company's stock, which recently closed at a 52-week high of 32.07 CAD, up approximately 167% year-to-date.

The immediate catalyst is a severe supply shock in the semiconductor industry. Japanese producers of tungsten hexafluoride, an essential gas for chip fabrication, are warning of supply disruptions beginning in July, with inventories expected to last only until the end of June. This crisis stems from China's export restrictions on raw tungsten, a material it controls over 80% of globally. With Japan supplying about a quarter of the world's tungsten hexafluoride, chipmakers like Samsung are scrambling. The usual 18-month qualification process for new materials is being drastically shortened, highlighting the urgency.

Almonty's flagship Sangdong mine in South Korea, officially commissioned in March, has become the only viable, non-Chinese source for Western chip companies. The operation processes 640,000 tonnes of ore annually with a high-grade wolfram trioxide content of 0.51%, roughly triple the global average. Its Phase 1 target is 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate per year, with production start planned for Q2 2026. The mine's life is estimated at over 45 years.

Simultaneously, the company is securing its role in U.S. national security. In a significant move, the U.S. government has explicitly exempted Almonty's tungsten products—including ore, concentrates, and oxides—from recent tariff hikes. This formalizes its status as a preferred supplier for the defense industrial base ahead of a planned U.S. ban on Chinese tungsten imports for defense procurement starting in 2027. To cement this strategic position, Almonty has relocated its corporate headquarters from Toronto to Dillon, Montana, placing it closer to U.S. agencies, defense contractors, and its recently acquired project in the state.

That project, the Gentung-Browns Lake operation in Montana, is slated to restart production in the second half of 2026. It would mark the first domestic U.S. tungsten production in over a decade. This development, alongside the Sangdong expansion, forms a clear operational roadmap. A planned Phase 2 expansion at Sangdong aims to double annual capacity to 1.2 million tonnes by 2027, a level that could allow Almonty to meet 40% of global tungsten demand outside China.

The market is pricing in this scarcity. The cost of ammonium paratungstate surged 534% by mid-March 2026 to $2,250 per metric tonne unit, while tungsten metal in Rotterdam jumped from around $900 at the start of the year to $3,190. Despite the stock's meteoric 700%+ rise over twelve months, a discounted cash flow model values the equity at 43.36 CAD, suggesting a roughly 33% discount to a recent trading price of 28.84 CAD.

This valuation gap and the steep rally have attracted heightened trading activity. The borrowing fee for short sales recently increased by 0.32 percentage points, indicating growing demand for bearish bets from traders anticipating a pullback. Institutional investors, however, appear bullish. The number of funds holding Almonty stock grew by 55% last quarter, with firms like Van Eck Associates, Encompass Capital, and Next Century Growth Investors establishing or increasing positions.

Investors are awaiting several near-term catalysts. The company will release its first quarterly production data from Sangdong in May. Furthermore, at the Annual General Meeting on June 8, 2026, management is expected to provide specifics on a shareholder-approved reverse stock split of up to 1-for-5 and detail the Phase 2 expansion plans. The coming quarters will test whether Almonty's operational execution can match its ambitious strategic positioning.