Almonty Industries: A Wolfram Producer at the Crossroads of Output and Capital Structure

Almonty Industries must decide on a reverse stock split by April 30 amid a 680% rally, with Sangdong mine output and US defense mandates driving growth.

The clock is ticking for Almonty Industries' board. By April 30, management must decide whether to implement a reverse stock split of up to five-to-one — a move shareholders have already authorized — or scrap the plan entirely. The decision comes at a moment when the company's shares are already on a tear, having surged roughly 680 percent over the past twelve months and 135 percent since the start of 2026. At 28.25 Canadian dollars, the stock sits about twelve percent below its all-time high from mid-April.

A reverse split would reduce the number of outstanding shares, mechanically lifting the per-share price. That shift often makes a stock more palatable to institutional investors who face minimum-price thresholds. But the company's valuation is already commanding attention: its market capitalization stands at roughly 5 billion CAD, and the relative strength index of 63 suggests the rally has not yet entered overbought territory, despite the blistering annual performance.

Sangdong's First Output Data Looms

Beyond the capital-structure debate, the next major catalyst is the quarterly report due in May. For the first time, it will include concrete production figures from the Sangdong mine in South Korea. The processing plant is already running and is expected to deliver around 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate annually. Analysts at DA Davidson anticipate full commercial operations within the current second quarter.

A second expansion phase, slated for 2027, would double that capacity. At full output, Sangdong could supply roughly 40 percent of the world's tungsten demand outside China. That is a critical statistic, given the geopolitical currents reshaping the market.

The Geopolitical Tailwind

Beijing has sharply restricted exports of tungsten products, limiting licenses to a handful of state-owned enterprises. Japanese suppliers have warned that chip giants such as Samsung and SK Hynix could run out of material for 3D NAND production by summer. Almonty is positioning itself as the strategic alternative. Washington has explicitly exempted the company's ores and concentrates from retaliatory tariffs, and from 2027 onward, a Pentagon mandate will force US defense contractors to source tungsten exclusively from non-Chinese sources.

That mandate is already reshaping the company's footprint. On April 13, Almonty moved its corporate headquarters from Toronto to Dillon, Montana. The relocation places management directly adjacent to the newly acquired Gentung project, which is being developed at full speed. The company is targeting production readiness for the second half of 2026, with an expected annual capacity of 140,000 metric tonne units. That gives Almonty a second strategic foothold on North American soil.

Volatility as a Feature, Not a Bug

The stock's annualized volatility exceeds 100 percent. For investors betting on a normalization of the valuation, the ride is likely to remain bumpy. The next concrete test will be the Gentung production timeline: if the company hits its end-of-2026 target, the valuation will gain another operational pillar.

For now, Almonty is one of the few Western-focused tungsten producers with active operations. Sangdong in South Korea and the Panasqueira mine in Portugal are already delivering. Montana is next. The board's decision on the reverse split will be the first in a series of milestones that determine whether this rally has legs — or whether the stock is due for a breather.