Almonty Industries: A Wolfram Powerhouse Emerges from Geopolitical Shifts

Almonty Industries forecasts revenue to leap from CAD 32.5M to nearly CAD 750M in 2026, driven by its Sangdong tungsten mine restart, US tariff exemption, and soaring prices.

A seismic shift in global supply chains is creating a new titan in the critical minerals sector. Almonty Industries is poised for a staggering financial transformation, with analysts forecasting revenue to surge from CAD 32.5 million to nearly CAD 750 million within a single year. This explosive growth is fueled by the convergence of its flagship mine restart, skyrocketing commodity prices, and a pivotal regulatory exemption from the United States.

The heart of this bullish outlook is the Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea’s Gangwon province, now operational after a 30-year hiatus. The Phase 1 processing plant is designed to handle 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, producing approximately 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. For 2026, this operation is expected to generate CAD 747.7 million in revenue with an EBITDA of CAD 488.1 million, implying a remarkable margin exceeding 50%. A planned Phase 2 expansion in 2027 aims to double this capacity. At full output, Sangdong could supply an estimated 40% of the global tungsten demand outside China.

The company’s strategic importance was cemented when the US government explicitly exempted Almonty’s tungsten ores, concentrates, and oxides from recent counter-tariffs. This decision is directly tied to a long-term supply contract with Global Tungsten & Powders in Pennsylvania, a key supplier for defense systems, aerospace components, and semiconductor applications. The move is prescient; starting January 1, 2027, a US defense mandate will require American contractors to source tungsten exclusively from non-Chinese suppliers, a rule Almonty is perfectly positioned to fulfill.

This regulatory tailwind meets a market in crisis. China, alongside Russia and North Korea, controls an estimated 95% of global tungsten supply and significantly tightened export controls in late 2025. Consequently, the spot price for ammonium paratungstate (APT) soared 534% to USD 2,250 per metric ton unit over the twelve months to mid-March 2026, with current momentum pushing toward USD 3,000. Structural shortages are acute, with Japanese suppliers warning South Korean customers that deliveries of tungsten hexafluoride—a crucial gas for 3D NAND chip production—could stall by summer, risking depleted inventories by June.

Financial institutions are taking decisive notice. The number of funds holding Almonty positions jumped by more than 55% last quarter to 107. Van ECK Associates now holds 11.2 million shares worth approximately USD 99 million. Other notable entrants include Encompass Capital Advisors with a USD 25.6 million position and Next Century Growth Investors with USD 16.3 million. This institutional confidence is mirrored by a wave of analyst upgrades. B. Riley Financial raised its target to USD 23 from USD 17, while DA Davidson set a target of USD 25. Oppenheimer increased its target to USD 19 from USD 16, maintaining an "Outperform" rating. GBC lifted its target to CAD 28.60 from CAD 9.00. Diamond Equity Research nearly doubled its 2026 EPS forecast from USD 0.23 to USD 0.45, anticipating a Q2 2026 profit of USD 0.12 per share.

Almonty’s balance sheet tells two stories. A reported net loss of CAD 161.9 million for fiscal 2025 is largely a non-cash accounting charge, stemming from a revaluation of liabilities triggered by the company’s own soaring share price, with no impact on operations. More telling is the company’s liquidity. Following a Nasdaq listing in July 2025 that raised USD 90 million and a further CAD 129.4 million capital raise in December, cash reserves ballooned to CAD 268.4 million, up from CAD 7.8 million a year prior. This war chest funds not only Sangdong but also a multi-continent expansion, including the Browns Lake project in Montana, slated for production readiness in the second half of 2026.

With sustainable all-in sustaining costs projected to fall from USD 345 to USD 266 per unit, margins are set to widen further. Management itself is targeting a net profit margin of 60% and annual revenue of around CAD 1 billion by 2028. The stock currently trades roughly 18% below its 52-week high as the market watches for Sangdong to reliably hit its production milestones in the coming quarters.