Almonty Industries: A Producer Emerges as Tungsten Prices Shatter Records

As tungsten prices hit record highs, Almonty Industries begins production at its strategic South Korean mine, poised to supply 40% of global demand outside China and transform its financial outlook.

The global scramble for tungsten has reached a fever pitch, with spot prices recently breaching $3,000 per metric ton unit—a staggering all-time high that reflects a 50% surge in just the past month. At the epicenter of this supply crisis stands Almonty Industries, a producer whose strategic mine launch in South Korea could not be more timely. With Asian semiconductor manufacturers warning of acute shortages and China tightening its grip on exports, Almonty is transitioning from a development story to an active supplier.

A Supply Shock Meets Strategic Timing

Market conditions are extraordinarily tight. China, which controls over 80% of global tungsten supply, is actively restricting exports. Simultaneously, the U.S. will ban imports of the metal from China for defense procurement starting in 2027. This has sent prices soaring; the twelve-month average spot price for tungsten APT rose 534% to $2,250 per metric ton unit by mid-March. The crisis is immediate for chipmakers: Japanese suppliers of tungsten hexafluoride, a critical process gas, have warned South Korean customers that shipments cannot be maintained beyond this summer, with existing inventories potentially lasting only until June.

Almonty’s Sangdong mine in South Korea commenced operations in mid-March 2026, positioning it directly at the doorstep of affected semiconductor fabs. The logistical advantage is significant. In its initial phase, the mine is processing approximately 640,000 tonnes of ore annually to produce about 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. A planned expansion in 2027 is set to double this capacity. At full output from both phases, Sangdong could potentially meet an estimated 40% of global tungsten demand outside China.

Financial Foundations and Soaring Expectations

The company enters this production phase with a fortified balance sheet. Following a Nasdaq listing in July 2025 that raised $90 million and a subsequent offering in December that brought in 129.4 million CAD, cash reserves stood at 268.4 million CAD at the end of 2025, up sharply from 7.8 million CAD a year earlier. These funds are earmarked for the ongoing expansion.

Financial results for the 2025 fiscal year, which largely reflect the pre-production phase, showed revenue climbing 13% to 32.5 million CAD. However, the company posted an adjusted EBITDA loss of 17 million CAD, driven primarily by a 231% jump in general and administrative costs. The reported net loss of approximately 161.9 million CAD is attributed by management mostly to non-cash valuation effects on derivatives and warrants.

Analysts anticipate a dramatic financial transformation with Sangdong now online. Projections for 2026 call for revenue to leap to 747.7 million CAD, with EBITDA forecast at 488.1 million CAD—implying a margin above 50%. Tungsten production is expected to surge from 58,000 to 267,537 metric ton units, while unit production costs are projected to fall from $345 to $266.

Building a Second Pillar in North America

Almonty is not relying on a single asset. The company is advancing its Gentung Browns Lake project in Montana, targeting production readiness in the second half of 2026. The deposit holds 7.53 million tonnes with a tungsten trioxide grade of 0.315%, with a planned annual capacity of roughly 140,000 metric ton units. This development aligns with the impending U.S. import ban on Chinese tungsten for defense, creating a dedicated North American supply stream. Almonty’s products have been exempt from U.S. tariffs since April 2025.

Market Sentiment and Valuation

The stock has reflected this potent mix of operational progress and macro tailwinds, gaining approximately 643% over a twelve-month period. It currently trades around 23.74 CAD. Analyst sentiment is bullish, with several firms recently updating targets:
- DA Davidson set a price target of $25.00 USD.
- B. Riley Financial issued a "Buy" rating with a $23.00 USD target.
- Oppenheimer's target stands at $19.00 USD.
- GBC raised its target from 9 to 28.60 CAD, citing the production ramp-up and structural shortage.
- Diamond Equity Research increased its 2026 EPS estimate to $0.45.

The consensus recommendation averages to a "Moderate Buy." The investment thesis now hinges squarely on execution. Management must demonstrate over the coming quarters that Sangdong can reliably hit its target volumes, converting its high upfront costs into the substantial revenue and profit streams the market is anticipating.