Almonty Industries: A Producer Emerges as Geopolitics Fuel a Tungsten Frenzy

China's export cuts spark a 700% tungsten price surge, threatening chip production. Almonty Industries brings a key South Korean mine online to fill the gap, attracting major investors.

A severe supply shock is rippling through the global semiconductor industry, and one Canadian miner is positioned at its epicenter. With China's drastic restrictions on tungsten exports threatening to halt South Korean memory chip production by this summer, Almonty Industries has successfully brought its key Sangdong mine online. The timing could hardly be more critical, as prices for the strategic metal have skyrocketed.

The crisis stems from a stark geopolitical reality: China, Russia, and North Korea collectively control an estimated 95% of the world's tungsten supply. In response to U.S. tariffs, Beijing slashed its own exports in late 2025. This has left Japanese suppliers warning their South Korean clients that deliveries of tungsten hexafluoride—an essential gas for manufacturing advanced 3D NAND chips—may cease by summer. Industry inventories are projected to last only until June.

This acute shortage has ignited an unprecedented price surge. By mid-March 2026, the spot price for tungsten APT had exploded by 534% to $2,250 per metric ton. On the Rotterdam trading hub, prices recently reached as high as $2,800 per metric ton unit (MTU), marking a near 20% gain in a single week and a staggering 700% increase since the start of 2025.

Amid this turmoil, Almonty has completed the first phase of commissioning at its Sangdong mine in South Korea, returning the asset to production after a 30-year hiatus. The processing plant is initially designed to handle 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, yielding approximately 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. A planned second phase in 2027 is set to double this capacity. At full output, Sangdong is expected to supply about 40% of the world's tungsten demand from outside China.

The company's financials for 2025 reflect its capital-intensive build-out phase. Revenue grew 13% to 32.5 million Canadian dollars (CAD), but it recorded an adjusted EBITDA loss of 17 million CAD, driven largely by a 231% surge in general administrative expenses. Analysts, however, anticipate a dramatic pivot with Sangdong's ramp-up, forecasting 2026 revenue to leap to 231 million CAD. The company's liquidity is robust, with a cash position of 268.4 million US dollars at the turn of the year.

This transition from developer to active producer is attracting institutional investors at a remarkable pace. The number of funds holding Almonty stock jumped by more than 55% last quarter to 107. Major positions include Van ECK Associates, which expanded its stake by over 13,000% to a holding worth roughly 99 million US dollars. New entrants include Encompass Capital Advisors with a $25.6 million position and Next Century Growth Investors with $16.3 million.

Analysts are swiftly revising their targets upward in light of the structural shortage and production start. GBC raised its price target from 9 to 28.60 CAD (approximately 17.71 Euros). B. Riley Financial increased its target from $17 to $23, reaffirming a Buy rating, while Oppenheimer lifted its target from $16 to $19. DA Davidson maintains a $25 target. Diamond Equity Research nearly doubled its 2026 EPS estimate from $0.23 to $0.45.

Almonty's growth strategy extends beyond Korea. The company is advancing its Gentung Browns Lake project in Montana, targeting production readiness in the second half of 2026. This deposit holds 7.53 million tonnes at a tungsten trioxide grade of 0.315% and is expected to add roughly 140,000 metric tonne units of annual capacity.

A significant tailwind comes from U.S. trade policy. The Trump administration has since exempted tungsten from country-specific tariffs, a move that directly benefits Almonty's export calculations. This aligns with long-term U.S. Defense Department mandates requiring tungsten from non-Chinese sources for procurement programs starting in 2027.

For Almonty, the immediate challenge is executing a smooth production ramp-up at Sangdong. Its ability to efficiently meet planned volumes will be the ultimate test for its financial results and the sustained confidence of its growing investor base.