Almonty Industries: A Market Divergence Amidst Strong Fundamentals

Almonty Industries shares fall on profit-taking despite a 557% surge in tungsten prices, completion of its Sangdong mine, and major institutional investment. Analysts see a buying opportunity.

Shares of Almonty Industries are currently experiencing significant selling pressure, presenting a curious divergence from the company's exceptionally strong underlying business environment. Despite a surge in the global tungsten price, the stock has recently recorded notable declines on high trading volume. An examination of recent operational milestones and institutional investor activity reveals a compelling disconnect between the company's performance and its market valuation.

Surging Tungsten Market Meets Operational Execution

The weakness in Almonty's share price stands in stark contrast to developments in the commodity market. Driven by strict export controls from China, which have tightened global supply by approximately 40%, the price of tungsten has skyrocketed by 557% over the past year. Almonty is positioned to fill this supply gap. In mid-March, the company formally completed the first commissioning phase of its Sangdong mine in South Korea. The facility is designed to eventually produce 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate annually. With a planned second phase targeted for 2027, Almonty could supply up to 40% of the global tungsten market outside of China.

This operational progress is supported by solid financials. For the 2025 fiscal year, total revenue increased by 13% to US$32.5 million, with a particularly strong fourth quarter showing growth of 39%. The company holds a comfortable cash position of US$268.4 million. These robust fundamentals have attracted the attention of major investors. Asset manager VanEck substantially increased its stake during the fourth quarter, investing roughly US$99 million to acquire over 11 million new shares.

Analyst Confidence and Recent Volatility

Notwithstanding this positive backdrop, the stock retreated by just over 19% on a weekly basis, closing Tuesday at A$23.68. Market observers largely interpret this move as profit-taking, especially in the context of the stock's massive year-to-date gain of nearly 447%.

Analysts from major investment firms remain undeterred by the recent volatility, with a consensus leaning toward a "Moderate Buy" rating. Their price targets reflect an expectation that operational strength will translate into share price appreciation over the medium term. Current targets include:

• DA Davidson: US$25.00
• B. Riley: US$23.00
• Oppenheimer: US$19.00

The average expert price target currently stands at US$18.38. With the first construction phase in South Korea now complete and a strong balance sheet, Almonty has established the necessary foundation to capitalize operationally on the ongoing supply constraints in the global tungsten market.