Almonty Industries: A Deeper Look Beyond the Headline Loss

Almonty's 2025 headline loss is a non-cash accounting charge. Revenue grew 13% on soaring tungsten prices, and a $129M raise funds a mine expansion to double capacity.

A headline net loss of CAD 161.9 million for 2025 might suggest a company in distress. For Almonty Industries, however, this figure masks a more nuanced operational reality, with the loss ballooning nearly tenfold from the prior year primarily due to a non-cash accounting entry. The underlying business tells a different story, one driven by surging tungsten prices and a significant capital raise to fund ambitious expansion.

Operational Performance and the Accounting Anomaly

The stark increase in reported loss was largely triggered by the company's own share price performance. Almonty's stock surged from CAD 1.36 to CAD 12.07 during 2025, which necessitated a mark-to-market revaluation of convertible debentures on the balance sheet. This non-cash charge alone accounted for CAD 87.3 million of the loss, leaving the company's actual cash flow and liquidity position unaffected.

On the operational front, results were more positive. Annual revenue climbed 13% to CAD 32.5 million, with a particularly strong fourth quarter showing a 39% year-over-year increase. This growth was fueled by a dramatic rise in the tungsten APT spot price. The rolling twelve-month average soared to $2,250 per metric tonne unit (MTU) by mid-March 2026, representing an increase of 534%.

This revenue upside was partially offset by a substantial rise in administrative expenses. General and administrative costs jumped from CAD 6.2 million to CAD 20.5 million for the full year. This increase was attributed mainly to legal and regulatory costs associated with a public equity offering in December and an extraordinary general meeting held in September.

Financing a Transformative Growth Phase

That December capital raise was a pivotal event. Almonty issued 20.7 million shares, generating gross proceeds of US$129.4 million. This injection boosted year-end cash balances to CAD 268.4 million, providing the war chest for the company's next major phase: the Stage-II expansion of its Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea.

Scheduled for commissioning in 2027, the Sangdong expansion aims to double processing capacity from approximately 640,000 to 1.2 million tonnes of ore annually. The vision extends beyond mining. Plans for an on-site tungsten oxide plant, coupled with a nearby molybdenum deposit, are intended to create a fully integrated supply chain—internally dubbed the "Korean Trinity." At full capacity, Sangdong could potentially supply around 40% of the global tungsten demand originating from outside China.

Analyst Outlook and Geopolitical Tailwinds

Recent analyst commentary reflects optimism about this strategy. On March 25, Diamond Equity Research updated its model, lowering the discount rate by 100 basis points to 7.0% and raising its 2026 APT price forecast to $2,275 per MTU. This resulted in an illustrative valuation of US$27.00 per share, contingent on successful execution. Meanwhile, Alliance Global Partners projects revenue could reach CAD 297 million in 2026 and CAD 593 million in 2027.

Almonty's prospects are further bolstered by shifting global trade dynamics. China, which controls over 80% of worldwide tungsten production, has implemented export restrictions. In a parallel move, the United States will ban Chinese tungsten imports for defense purposes starting in 2027. This geopolitical landscape creates structural tailwinds for non-Chinese suppliers like Almonty. The company's near-term challenge is to smoothly transition its Phase 1 operations from ramp-up to steady-state production while ensuring its cost structure remains aligned with the new, higher tungsten price environment.