Almonty Faces Its Defining Quarter as Tungsten Prices Quadruple and Pentagon Mandates Loom

Almonty's Sangdong mine nears production as tungsten prices surge sixfold, backed by Pentagon mandates and a $234M molybdenum floor.

The numbers are staggering by any measure. Tungsten prices have surged from roughly $300 per metric tonne to over $1,775 — a near-sixfold leap — as China’s export clampdown sends shockwaves through global supply chains. Almonty Industries, the Toronto-listed miner resurrecting South Korea’s Sangdong mine after a three-decade hiatus, finds itself at the epicenter of a raw-materials crisis that has transformed it from a development story into a strategic Western asset almost overnight.

The stock has already priced in much of that transformation, climbing more than 700 percent over the past twelve months. But the real test arrives May 21, when Almonty releases its first quarterly report containing actual production figures from Sangdong’s newly commissioned Phase 1 operations. The mill began processing ore on March 16, designed to handle roughly 640,000 tonnes annually and deliver around 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. With an average ore grade of approximately 0.51 percent tungsten trioxide — about three times the global average — the mine carries a structural cost advantage that competitors outside China will struggle to match.

A Molybdenum Floor and a Pentagon Mandate

Behind the headline tungsten story sits a less visible but equally significant contract. Almonty has locked in a molybdenum supply agreement guaranteeing a minimum annual revenue of $234 million — a contractual floor, not a forecast. That provides a buffer against any operational hiccups as Sangdong ramps up.

The company ended fiscal 2025 with $268 million in cash, raised through Nasdaq equity offerings including a $90 million IPO in July 2025 and a $129 million follow-on in December. That war chest funds not only the Korean operation but also the planned restart of the Gentung tungsten project in Montana, targeted for later this year.

Washington has already signaled its support. A U.S. government report released April 29 formally identified dependence on imported critical minerals as a direct threat to national defense. Almonty’s tungsten ores, concentrates, and oxides have been explicitly exempted from U.S. retaliatory tariffs, backed by a long-term supply agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders in Pennsylvania. Starting January 2027, a Pentagon mandate will require U.S. defense contractors to source tungsten exclusively from non-Chinese suppliers — a rule that effectively funnels demand toward Almonty and the handful of other Western producers.

The China Factor and Chip Industry Squeeze

China’s tightening grip on tungsten exports has been the primary catalyst. Beijing replaced its previous quota system with a state-controlled licensing regime limited to just 15 approved companies. Ammonium paratungstate (APT) prices rocketed from around $900 per metric tonne unit in late 2025 to over $3,000 by April 2026. Japanese suppliers have already warned Samsung and SK Hynix that their stocks of tungsten hexafluoride — essential for 3D NAND chip production — could run dry this summer.

That supply squeeze reinforces Almonty’s strategic positioning. At full capacity, Sangdong could meet roughly 40 percent of global tungsten demand outside China, making it arguably the most important non-Chinese tungsten asset in development.

Shareholder Vote and Stock Dynamics

The company’s annual general meeting on June 8 will test investor sentiment on the next growth phase. Shareholders will vote on Phase 2 expansion, which would double processing capacity to approximately 1.2 million tonnes of ore per year, targeted for 2027. Also on the agenda: whether to implement a previously authorized reverse stock split of up to five-to-one, a decision the board has yet to signal.

The stock currently trades at C$27.97, roughly 9 percent below its 52-week high of C$32.07 but well above the 50-day moving average of C$25.72. Texas Capital, DA Davidson, and B. Riley Financial all rate the shares a buy, with price targets ranging from $23 to $25 U.S. dollars. Institutional ownership has jumped more than 55 percent to 107 funds, reflecting the growing conviction that Almonty has moved beyond speculative territory.

Short-term volatility remains. The stock shed about 5.4 percent on Friday in thin holiday-affected trading, pulling back 13 percent from its yearly peak. But with tungsten at record levels, a Pentagon mandate on the horizon, and Sangdong’s first production data due in three weeks, the narrative is shifting from what the stock has already done to what the mine can actually deliver.