Almonty Emerges as Geopolitical Hedge as G7 Targets China's Critical Minerals Grip

G7's 60% import cap on rare earths from a single country boosts non-Chinese supply chains. Almonty's Sangdong mine confirms molybdenum reserves, attracting major institutional investors.

The G7’s pledge this week — that no single country should supply more than 60% of the group’s rare earth imports by 2030 — has sent a clear signal to markets. China currently controls roughly 70% of global mining and over 90% of processing, and an informal moratorium on Chinese export controls is due to expire in November. For companies building non-Chinese supply chains, the risk-reward calculus has fundamentally shifted. Few are better positioned to capitalise than Almonty Industries, whose Sangdong project in South Korea is emerging as a dual-metal powerhouse.

Almonty’s stock has surged nearly 470% over the past twelve months, and the rally shows no sign of fading. Year-to-date, shares have climbed 121%, with a seven-day gain exceeding 12%. The immediate catalyst is the formal confirmation of molybdenum reserves at the Sangdong mine in Gangwon Province. Exploration drilling is 37% complete across 26 sites, and CEO Lewis Black has noted that the results validate historical data with high precision.

The timing is no coincidence. South Korea imports more than 90% of its molybdenum from China, and national stockpiles have shrunk dramatically. The government has publicly urged companies to secure alternative sources. Molybdenum spot prices have jumped roughly 23.5% over the past year. Almonty plans to leverage its existing tungsten infrastructure at Sangdong to develop a domestic molybdenum supply — an elegant double play that has already secured a buyer. The company holds an exclusive offtake agreement with SeAH M&S, the world’s second-largest molybdenum oxide smelter, locking in revenue before a single tonne is extracted.

What sets this phase apart from typical junior-mining volatility is the calibre of capital flowing in. Van Eck Associates Corp. has expanded its position by approximately 13,300%. Encompass Capital Advisors and Element Capital Management have also taken significant stakes. These are not speculative bets on metal prices but strategic allocations into an asset that embodies geopolitical necessity.

Financially, Almonty stands on solid ground after an oversubscribed convertible bond placement worth $800 million. Management says the funds will accelerate Sangdong’s expansion and strengthen the company’s role as a leading non-Chinese tungsten supplier for Western defence and technology customers. Production is expected to start earlier than originally planned.

The stock currently trades at 26.73 CAD, about 20% below its all-time high of 33.35 CAD reached in April. That gap leaves room for further re-rating, especially as the market begins to price in a geopolitical premium. The shares sit roughly 52% above their 200-day moving average of 17.49 CAD. The annualised volatility of nearly 99% underscores the risks — mining complexity, geopolitical shifts, and scheduling uncertainty — but the offtake contract, confirmed reserves, and institutional backing provide a buffer.

The consensus analyst rating remains Buy, though the target price of 25.00 CAD sits slightly below the current level, suggesting the market may already be pricing in upside that formal models have yet to capture. With a market capitalisation of around 4.56 billion euros, Almonty is no longer a speculative junior miner. It is a strategic platform for critical minerals, riding the shift from China-dependency discount to autonomy premium. The G7’s pledge has only reinforced that narrative.