Allianz Turns Geopolitical Uncertainty into Record Profits as Berenberg Issues €504 Price Target

Allianz reports record Q1 operating profit of €4.5B, up 6.6%, as demand for political violence insurance soars. Stock near 52-week high; Berenberg sets €504 target with 30% upside.

Armed conflict has overtaken civil unrest as the top threat to global business, and Allianz is cashing in. The insurer’s latest risk survey finds more than half of companies now rank armed conflict as their primary concern — in Germany the figure hits 63%. Over the past five years, the overall conflict risk to corporate assets has jumped more than 20%, with nearly every second company citing business interruption and supply-chain disruption as the chief knock-on effects. The response is already reshaping industrial strategy: about half of firms plan to broaden their supplier base, while roughly 35% are exploring nearshoring. For Allianz, this translates directly into surging demand for political violence and terrorism cover, prompting the group to tighten its underwriting approach and re-evaluate exposures in key regions.

That demand helped drive a record first-quarter operating performance. Allianz reported an operating profit of €4.5 billion, up 6.6% year-on-year, on business volume of €53.0 billion — a 3.5% increase excluding currency effects. The adjusted net profit soared 48.4% to €3.8 billion, reflecting both higher premiums and a sharp improvement in underwriting quality. The combined ratio, a key measure of profitability in property and casualty insurance, improved to 91.4% from 91.8% a year earlier, and in the commercial segment it reached an even stronger 90.3%. Meanwhile, the annualised core return on equity hit 24.2% at the end of March, up from 18.1% for the full year 2025.

The stock, which traded at around €386.20 on Thursday, sits just 2.2% below its 52-week high of €394.80 set on 21 April 2026. The relative strength index stands at 70.6, signalling a strong but slightly overheated market — no surprise given a 10.5% gain over the past twelve months. Allianz’s shares remain comfortably above both the 50-day moving average of €373.00 and the 200-day line of €369.24. With the RSI flashing caution, Berenberg’s new €504 price target — representing potential upside of more than 30% — looks ambitious, yet the bank reaffirmed its buy recommendation, betting that the operational momentum still has room to run.

Berenberg’s conviction rests on the quality of Allianz’s first-quarter numbers, particularly in property-casualty underwriting and the strong inflows into its asset management division. Core earnings per share reached €9.96, a 50.7% leap from the €6.61 recorded a year earlier. The bank also highlighted the group’s steady capital position: the Solvency II ratio held at 221%, leaving ample room for shareholder returns and bolt-on acquisitions. Allianz is already deploying those resources, buying back its own shares to the tune of €0.3 billion in the first quarter within a programme of up to €2.5 billion.

Beyond the balance sheet, Allianz is working to lock in structural margin gains through technology. In January 2026, the group announced a global partnership with Anthropic to integrate responsible artificial intelligence into its claims handling. The goal is to process cases more accurately while freeing up staff for higher-value tasks — a move consistent with its 2025–2027 strategic cycle, which targets annual core EPS growth of 7–9%. Management reconfirmed the full-year 2026 operating profit target of €17.4 billion, with a broad range of €14.8 billion to €20.0 billion.

For chart watchers, the immediate resistance sits at the April high of €394.80. A clean break above that level would not only shorten the distance to Berenberg’s €504 target but also confirm that the market is pricing in exactly what the risk study and the quarterly report suggest: Allianz has turned a more dangerous world into a more profitable one.