Allianz's Buyback Machine Grinds On as Barclays Sticks With Its Underweight Call

Allianz's €2.5B buyback reaches 33.7% as shares hit near highs, but Barclays warns of stretched valuation with €350 target vs €389.40 price.

The gap between Allianz's share price and what Barclays thinks it's worth has widened to nearly €40, but the German insurer shows no signs of slowing its capital return efforts. The company has now burned through roughly a third of its €2.5 billion buyback programme, spending €842.51 million since the scheme kicked off in March 2026. Yet one major bank argues the stock has already priced in too much good news.

Between 20 and 22 May, Allianz scooped up 240,477 of its own shares for €92.5 million, bringing the total repurchased so far to about 33.7% of the programme's ceiling. Those shares are destined for cancellation, which will shrink the overall share count and lift earnings per share for remaining holders. With just under €1.66 billion left to deploy and a year-end deadline, the pace could accelerate further if the company sees value in the current price.

Barclays, however, sees little reason for optimism at these levels. Analyst Ivan Bokhmat reaffirmed an Underweight rating and a €350 price target, arguing that the valuation has become stretched. He concedes that European insurers boast robust profits and solid balance sheets, but points to lacklustre earnings momentum in property and casualty and market volatility dragging on life insurance. The current share price of €389.40, less than 1.4% below its 52-week high of €394.80, leaves no room for error in his view.

Allianz's first-quarter results give the bulls plenty of ammunition. Operating profit climbed 6.6% to €4.517 billion, while net income attributable to shareholders hit €3.690 billion. Core earnings per share surged from €6.61 to €9.96. The Solvency II ratio of 221% provides ample headroom for both dividends and buybacks, up from 218% at the end of 2025. The combined ratio in property and casualty improved to 91.0% from 91.8%, and the asset management arm attracted €45.2 billion in third-party net inflows. Operating profit in that segment alone reached €857 million.

Technicians see a separate reason for caution. The relative strength index sits at 76.9, nudging into overbought territory and suggesting the stock may be due for a pullback. Barclays' Bokhmat uses that as additional cover for his bearish stance, even if the market has so far shrugged it off. The spread between his €350 target and the consensus analyst estimate of roughly €400 highlights the depth of disagreement over fair value.

Allianz's board has already proposed a dividend of €17.10 per share for the current fiscal year, and the buyback is designed to complement that payout. For long-term investors, the shrinking share count means each remaining share captures a larger slice of future profits. The question is whether the operational momentum in underwriting and asset management can sustain the premium valuation that Barclays insists is already fully reflected.

For now, the buyback programme marches on, and the stock hovers near its high. But the disconnect between one of the industry's most respected research houses and the broader market suggests that the next major move will depend on whether Allianz can deliver enough earnings growth to justify the current price tag.