Allianz Nears Shareholder Meeting With Record Earnings, a Fresh Bond, and Goldman’s Bullish Call

Allianz SE issues $750M perpetual bond, proposes record dividend, and gets Goldman Sachs upgrade to Buy with €450 target, while Allianz Trade warns of rising insolvencies.

The German insurance giant is heading into a busy May with a string of financial milestones, a new capital markets move, and an upgraded analyst rating that points to further upside. But the backdrop is not entirely sunny, with a subsidiary’s insolvency forecast casting a shadow over the broader economic outlook.

A $750 Million Capital Move

Allianz SE tapped the bond market on April 22, issuing perpetual notes worth $750 million with a 6.5% coupon. The securities qualify as Restricted Tier 1 capital under Solvency II rules, giving the group’s regulatory buffer an additional layer of strength. That buffer was already robust: the Solvency II ratio stood at 218% at the last count, meaning the issuance is more about proactive capital management than any urgent need.

The move comes as the company prepares for its annual general meeting in Munich on May 7, where shareholders will vote on a new “Authorized Capital 2026” proposal that would give the board more flexibility in shaping the capital structure.

Record Earnings Fuel a Bigger Payout

Allianz’s financial firepower is underpinned by an operating profit of €17.4 billion for the 2025 financial year — a record for the group. That performance is the foundation for a proposed dividend increase and a fresh share buyback program, both of which are expected to be formally approved at the AGM.

The ex-dividend date is set for May 8, with payment typically arriving three trading days later. Historically, the stock has shown a positive seasonal pattern in the two weeks before the ex-date, with an average gain of 4.6%. Whether that pattern holds this time remains to be seen, but the shares are already trading well above their 200-day moving average of €368.28, having closed at €385.40 on Thursday — a marginal 0.13% gain.

That level is still below the 2025 high of €394.80 reached on April 21, but Goldman Sachs sees room to run. The bank upgraded Allianz to “Buy” in mid-April, setting a price target of €450, implying roughly 17% upside from the current €384.90 level. The upgrade was driven by a higher valuation multiple — the price-to-adjusted-book-value ratio for 2027 was lifted to 1.8x — and a roughly 2% increase in earnings-per-share estimates for that year.

AI as a Productivity Engine

A key part of Goldman’s thesis is Allianz’s heavy investment in artificial intelligence. The group spends around €6.5 billion annually on technology, more than any other global insurer. Goldman estimates that AI deployment could unlock productivity gains of 10% to 30% across the business. Already, more than 900 AI use cases are running group-wide, and the in-house GenAI Lab has developed over 30,000 AI agents. This year, Allianz is rolling out AllianzGPT 2.0, its internal AI platform, to all employees.

A Warning From the Credit Arm

Not all signals are positive. Allianz Trade, the group’s credit insurance unit, has raised its global insolvency forecast for 2026 once again. It now expects a 6% rise in corporate bankruptcies worldwide, up from the 5% it projected in October 2025, citing geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts.

For Germany, Allianz Trade predicts around 24,650 insolvencies — the highest level since 2012. The construction, retail, and manufacturing sectors are seen as particularly vulnerable.

Tighter Pay Rules and an Earnings Check

The AGM will also see a vote on a revised executive compensation system. Under the proposed changes, long-term bonuses would be forfeited if Allianz’s share price underperforms the STOXX Europe 600 Insurance Index by more than 25 percentage points over four years — a significant tightening from the previous threshold of 50 points.

After the AGM, attention will shift to May 13, when Allianz releases its first-quarter results and holds an analyst conference. That will be the first real test of whether the record 2025 performance has carried into the new year — and whether Goldman’s re-rating call proves prescient.