All-Time High and Overbought Signals Set Stage for Nvidia's Earnings Test on Semiconductor ETF

The VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF fell 3.6% from its all-time high as profit-taking sets in, but a 28% monthly surge underscores chip demand. All eyes on Nvidia's Wednesday earnings as key catalyst.

The VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF closed at 86.74 euros on Friday, a 3.62% decline from the previous session, after setting an all-time high of 90 euros just a day earlier. The pullback came as traders locked in profits from a blistering 130% gain over the past twelve months and a 58% year-to-date advance. Yet the fund's 28% monthly surge underscores the ferocious demand for chip exposure — a demand that now hinges on Nvidia's quarterly report due Wednesday, May 20.

That earnings release from the AI chip leader will be the next major catalyst for the entire semiconductor complex. Nvidia is in the midst of a product transition from its Blackwell architecture to the Vera-Rubin platform, a shift that can supercharge demand but also introduces operational risks around supply chains and margins. Analysts expect the company to post quarterly revenue of around $78 billion. The outcome will either reinforce the AI investment thesis or expose the elevated valuations across the chip supply chain.

Supporting the sector's momentum, Applied Materials delivered a record quarter that validates the capital expenditure cycle. The equipment maker reported revenue of $7.91 billion, an 11% increase year-on-year, and adjusted earnings per share of $2.86, beating the consensus estimate of $2.68. Management raised the quarterly dividend to $0.53 per share and issued an unusually bullish forecast: it expects the semiconductor equipment business to grow by more than 30% in calendar 2026. That outlook bolsters the argument that AI-driven investment is reaching beyond chip designers to the machinery and fabrication suppliers.

The ETF's portfolio reflects this breadth, with major holdings spanning memory, processors, and manufacturing equipment. Top positions as of mid-May included Micron Technology at 12.61%, Advanced Micro Devices at 11.22%, and Intel at 8.95%. Other heavyweights such as Taiwan Semiconductor, Nvidia, and Broadcom also feature prominently. The fund tracks the MarketVector US Listed Semiconductor Index, which applies ESG screens, and has attracted substantial investor interest since its December 2020 launch. Total assets under management now stand at €6.4 billion, while the UCITS share class alone has seen net inflows of $629.5 million in recent trading days, pushing its AUM to roughly $7.5 billion.

Despite the strong inflows, the ETF's technical indicators suggest a short-term overheating risk. The relative strength index read 71.2 at Friday's close, a level that many traders consider overbought. The 50-day moving average of 68.38 euros provides downside support, while the longer-term 200-day average at 55.74 euros confirms the underlying trend remains firmly intact. Annualized volatility of nearly 39% warns that swings can be sharp — the fund's 130% annual gain came with commensurate turbulence.

All eyes now turn to Nvidia's earnings call on Wednesday. If the company delivers a compelling outlook and demonstrates a smooth product transition, the ETF's recent rally could gain a fresh footing. A disappointing forecast, however, would intensify scrutiny on the high valuations baked into AI-exposed stocks and send ripples through the entire semiconductor ecosystem. For a fund that has already quadrupled since its launch, the next 48 hours will be decisive.