Aixtron's Two-Speed Engine: Optoelectronics Boom Masks SiC Strain as Shares Rebound 9%

Aixtron stock rallied 9.3% after weak US jobs data boosted Fed pause hopes, but the semiconductor equipment maker faces a split: optoelectronics boom drives guidance while SiC overcapacity pressures margins.

The semiconductor equipment maker Aixtron is living a dual reality. On one side, a blistering boom in optoelectronics is driving orders and raising guidance. On the other, a painful hangover in silicon carbide (SiC) power electronics is weighing on margins and keeping investors on edge. This schism played out vividly last week as the stock first sold off, then snapped back with a 9.30% surge on Friday to close at €49.24.

That rally came after a bruising month. Over the past 30 days, Aixtron shares have shed 17.99% of their value, and they remain 21.44% below the 52-week high of €62.68 touched on June 18. Yet the long-term trajectory remains stunning: the stock is still up 151.55% year-to-date and 197.61% over the past twelve months. The 52-week low of €12.02 from September 3, 2025, now sits more than 300% in the rear-view mirror.

The near-term technicals, however, are mixed. The 50-day moving average at €52.93 remains out of reach, with the current price trailing 6.98% below that line. The relative strength index at 42.9 points to neutral territory, leaving room for moves in either direction. Longer-term support is firmer: the 100-day average of €42.57 and the 200-day average of €30.03 both sit well below the current level, suggesting the broader uptrend is intact.

What made Friday's turnaround particularly sharp was a double dose of macro and sector tailwinds. US jobs data for June came in at a paltry 57,000 new positions, far below expectations. That raised the probability of a Federal Reserve pause in September from 35.8% to 46.8%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, cooling rate fears and lifting tech stocks broadly. Meanwhile, ASML's stock is trading near its all-time high after UBS and Goldman Sachs boosted their price targets to as high as €2,100. And a new chip announcement from OpenAI and Broadcom — the "Jalapeño" inference processor — underscores the gallium nitride and silicon carbide demand that Aixtron feeds into.

But beneath the headline price action, the fundamental picture is a study in contrasts. In the first quarter, Aixtron booked orders worth roughly €171 million, a 30% jump compared to a year earlier. Over 65% of those new orders came from optoelectronics, driven by the insatiable appetite of AI data centers and video streaming for fast optical data transfers. Management responded by raising full-year guidance: revenue is now expected to climb to around €560 million, with an operating margin between 17% and 20%. Further out, MicroLED technology is seen as a catalyst for new large-scale production orders in 2026.

On the other side of the ledger, the SiC power electronics market is suffering from severe overcapacity. Aixtron has warned that it expects a marked decline in SiC-related revenue in 2026. The growing gallium nitride business can only partially compensate. One-time personnel expenses in the millions of euros weighed on first-quarter operating results, and lower sales volumes exacerbated the margin squeeze. Analysts still view the stock as expensive despite the recent correction, and deep-pocketed rivals could turn up pricing pressure.

The market's next major checkpoint is July 30, 2026, when Aixtron reports second-quarter results. Investors will scrutinize whether the order momentum in optoelectronics has continued and how management is managing profitability amid the SiC headwinds. Strong margins could quickly push the old high back into focus, while any sign that the SiC slump is deepening would revive the bearish narrative.

For now, Aixtron remains a high-wire act. The 30-day annualized volatility stands at 80.89%, making it a ride for the risk-tolerant. The €50 level needs to be reclaimed convincingly, and a close above the 50-day moving average of €52.93 would give buyers fresh confidence. With ASML, Netflix and SAP reporting in the coming week and the Fed and ECB releasing meeting minutes, Aixtron's next move will be shaped as much by the sector's mood as by its own delicate balance between growth and drag.