Aixtron's Bounce Hits the 100-Day Line as JPMorgan Bets on a 60% Rebound

Aixtron rebounds 5% to test 100-day moving average; JPMorgan reiterates Overweight with €70 target citing optical-chip demand.

After shedding nearly a quarter of its value in a month, Aixtron shares found a foothold on Monday, climbing from €41.78 to €43.86 — a gain of almost 5% in a single session. That move brought the stock within a hair's breadth of the 100-day moving average at €44.09, a level that technical traders view as a pivotal test of whether the sell-off is exhaustion or the start of something worse.

The bounce comes against a backdrop of deep unease. The company's 52-week high of €62.68, set on 18 June, now sits more than 30% above the current price. The 30-day slide of 25.16% has wiped out months of gains, even though the year-to-date return still stands at a formidable 123.81% (or 124.06%, depending on the reference point). The annualised volatility of nearly 84% underscores just how jittery the stock has become.

Yet JPMorgan, in a note published Tuesday, is betting that the worst is over. Analyst Craig McDowell reaffirmed an "Overweight" rating with a €70 price target — implying roughly 60% upside from Monday's close. His conviction rests on the Optoelectronics segment, where Asian customers are driving order momentum that he expects the upcoming quarterly report to confirm. The bank sees strong catalysts building into the second quarter of 2026.

That optimistic call cuts against a broader sector chill. Nvidia, in response to tightened US export controls, has slashed its customer list in Asia and introduced a "white list" to enforce compliance with American sanctions. Cloud providers in Singapore and Malaysia are the most directly affected. But Aixtron's business — manufacturing MOCVD equipment for compound semiconductors — operates in a different lane. China's chip exports surged 122% in June to roughly 32 billion units, a local boom that continues even as US suppliers lose ground.

European policy is adding its own tailwind. On 14 July, the EU Commission approved €659 million in state aid for four German semiconductor projects, much of it destined for Baeseweiler — a stone's throw from Aixtron's headquarters.

The bull case, then, hinges on the idea that optical-chip demand from AI-driven data centre buildouts will more than compensate for weakness in silicon carbide and gallium nitride power electronics. Deliveries to Japanese chipmakers ROHM Semiconductor and Renesas have already reinforced Aixtron's technological lead in GaN applications. The order backlog hit record levels in the first half, according to reports, though the gap between booked volumes and recognised revenue continues to weigh on sentiment.

On the bearish side, critics note that the first quarter produced an operating loss, partly due to one-offs and seasonality. The distance to the 50-day moving average of €52.69 — nearly 17% above the current price — shows how thoroughly the short-term uptrend has been damaged. Should the stock fail to reclaim the €44.09 level sustainably, selling pressure could intensify, with the 200-day average at €31.10 as the next technical downside target. A breach there would tarnish even the robust 12-month picture, which still shows a gain of roughly 174%.

The relative strength index at 39.6 suggests neither overbought nor oversold conditions, leaving room for either direction. The next concrete catalyst is the half-year report due on 30 July. The market will be watching to see whether management can demonstrate a tangible recovery in silicon carbide during the second half and whether the revenue corridor of €530–€590 million remains intact. If the numbers confirm JPMorgan's thesis — strong optical order intake converting into revenue — the stock could close the gap to its 50-day average. If not, the high volatility of recent weeks is likely to persist.

For now, Aixtron sits at a crossroads. The analyst target shouts opportunity, while the chart whispers caution. The resolution, as so often in this sector, will come when the numbers do.