Airbus Surges on H1 Delivery Record as Farnborough Showdown with Boeing for SMBC Order Looms

Airbus delivered 351 jets in H1 2026, a 15% jump, as it faces Boeing for a major SMBC order at Farnborough. Stock up 6% in 30 days, but analysts cautious on weak Q1.

The European aerospace giant has plenty of reasons to walk into Farnborough with confidence. Airbus delivered 351 commercial jets in the first half of 2026 – its best January-to-June performance since 2019 and a near-15% jump from the 306 aircraft handed over in the same period last year. June alone saw 89 planes leave the assembly lines, propelled by a clearing of a backlog of deliveries to Chinese customers and an easing of engine-supply bottlenecks that had earlier constrained production.

That operational momentum will be put to the test during the Farnborough International Airshow from July 20 to 24, where Airbus and Boeing are locked in a high-stakes battle for a roughly 100-aircraft order from SMBC Aviation Capital, one of the world’s largest aircraft lessors. Boeing is said to be in advanced talks with SMBC for about 100 737 Max jets, while Airbus is pursuing a similarly sized deal for the A320neo family. The outcome will be closely watched as a bellwether for the leasing sector and could further cement Airbus’s dominance in the narrowbody segment, where the A320neo already leads year-to-date order tallies.

The race for SMBC unfolds against an industry backdrop of increasingly scarce production slots. Together, Airbus and Boeing booked 1,210 orders in the first half of 2026, well above the 995-aircraft average for the same period from 2022 to 2025. Airbus alone racked up 886 net orders (887 gross) between January and June, driven largely by the A320neo family. A wave of 331 orders in March alone – fueled by fleet renewals from lessors and Chinese airlines – underscored the appetite. The combined order backlog for both manufacturers now stands at around 16,000 aircraft, and IBA, an aviation consultancy, expects up to 875 commercial orders and letters of intent during the airshow. Its chief economist noted that delivery positions for the A320neo and 737 Max are largely filled through about 2033, injecting urgency into current negotiations.

Shareholders have taken note of the improving delivery rhythm. Airbus stock ended the week at €48.60 in Xetra trading on Friday, up 0.41% on the day and roughly 6.1% higher over the past 30 days. The price sits 6.6% above its 50-day moving average of €45.60, suggesting a healthy short-term uptrend, while the relative strength index of 54.7 points to neutral momentum. At €152.41 billion in market capitalisation, the stock is also trading above the 200-day average of €47.19, confirming that the broader trend remains upward – even if it still trails the 52-week high of €55.00 set on January 12 by about 11.6%. The March low of €38.40, meanwhile, now looks distant, with the shares having rallied more than 26% from that trough.

Analysts are cautiously optimistic. UBS reaffirmed its buy rating and lifted its price target, despite Airbus reporting a weak first quarter: revenue slipped 7% to €12.651 billion and operating profit plummeted 53% to €224 million. CEO Guillaume Faury attributed the poor quarterly showing to the then-lower delivery volumes, noting that the Defence and Space division partly cushioned the blow. Jefferies also raised its target, from €185 to €200, but kept a “hold” rating, arguing that other European aerospace and defence names offer more upside.

Two near-term catalysts will test the stock’s recovery. Beyond the Farnborough order spectacle, Airbus is set to release its first-half results on July 29 at 7:30 pm CET. Investors will watch whether the strong delivery pace can be sustained through the second half, and whether the internal goal of exceeding 900 deliveries in 2026 – above the official guidance of 870 – is within reach. With roughly 520 aircraft still to be handed over by year-end, the June momentum has made the target look more attainable, though it remains ambitious. For now, Airbus enters the airshow with a record order book and a delivery engine that has finally found its rhythm.