Airbus Shares Face Crosswinds: Record Order Meets Production Delays

AerCap orders 100 A320neo jets, but Airbus faces Q1 delivery headwinds due to engine supply issues, challenging its 2026 target of 870 aircraft.

Airbus finds itself navigating turbulent skies. While the European aerospace giant has secured a landmark order from a key industry player, its progress toward ambitious annual delivery targets has hit unexpected headwinds in the first quarter.

A Landmark Deal from a Key Lessor

In a significant show of confidence, AerCap Holdings, the world’s largest aircraft lessor, placed a direct order for 100 jets from Airbus’s A320neo family on March 18. The order comprises 23 A320neo and 77 A321neo aircraft, marking the lessor's first direct purchase for this aircraft family since December 2017. Notably, this transaction stands as the single largest direct order AerCap has ever placed with Airbus. Deliveries for these aircraft are scheduled to occur between 2028 and 2034.

This move sends a powerful message regarding the enduring market strength of the A320neo series. Despite intensified competition, particularly from Boeing which led in new orders for the first time in years during 2025, a premier industry customer is doubling down on Airbus's narrowbody workhorse. With over 19,000 orders globally, the family retains its position as the world's most-ordered narrowbody aircraft.

Production Snags Cloud Strong Demand

The commercial endorsement from AerCap arrives at an awkward moment for Airbus's production lines. According to Barclays estimates, the manufacturer had delivered only 6.2% of its 2026 target of 870 aircraft by mid-March. For comparison, at the same point in 2025, the figure stood at 7.9%.

A particular discrepancy in production data highlights the challenge. Out of 55 manufactured aircraft powered by LEAP engines, only 22 had been delivered by March 18. While Airbus has publicly identified Pratt & Whitney as a supply chain bottleneck, these figures suggest that delays in receiving LEAP engines from CFM International are currently a primary driver of the delivery backlog. The analysis firm AirInsight has already revised its 2026 production forecast downward from 904 to 873 aircraft as a result.

The Road to Recovery in the Second Half

For the full 2026 fiscal year, Airbus is targeting an adjusted EBIT of approximately €7.5 billion and a free cash flow of around €4.5 billion. Shareholders will vote on a proposed dividend of €3.20 per share for 2025 at the Annual General Meeting in Amsterdam on April 14.

Barclays analysts characterize the current production issues as a temporary setback, maintaining that the long-term production ramp-up trajectory remains intact. However, for Airbus to hit its annual delivery goal of 870 units, it must achieve a significantly faster pace in the second half of 2026 than it did in 2025. With a substantial order backlog of nearly 8,800 aircraft, demand is certainly not the problem. Reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the delivery schedule, Airbus shares currently trade roughly 14% below their 200-day moving average.