Airbus SE stock under pressure from Barclays buy rating and analyst target cuts amid supply chain woes

Airbus SE (ISIN: NL0000235190) shares face headwinds from supply chain constraints and mixed analyst views, with Barclays maintaining a buy at EUR 220 while Berenberg trims to EUR 190 hold. US investors watch defense opportunities and transatlantic ties as production ramps lag. Latest price on Euronext Paris: 165.06 EUR, down 0.81%.

Airbus SE, the European aerospace giant, is grappling with persistent supply chain disruptions that are slowing commercial aircraft production, even as analysts offer a split outlook on its stock. Barclays reaffirmed a buy rating with a EUR 220 target, signaling confidence in long-term recovery, while Berenberg cut its price target to EUR 190 on a hold rating citing lower output forecasts. The Airbus SE stock traded at 165.06 EUR on Euronext Paris, reflecting a 0.81% decline amid these updates.

As of: 24.03.2026

By Elena Voss, Aerospace Sector Analyst: Airbus SE navigates a tricky balance between commercial delays and rising defense demand, making it a key watch for investors eyeing global aviation recovery.

Barclays Sticks to Buy Amid Production Challenges

Barclays maintained its positive stance on Airbus SE, keeping the price target at EUR 220 per share. This comes as the company reports ongoing issues in ramping up A320 family production due to supplier bottlenecks. The bank sees the current dip as a buying opportunity, given Airbus's dominant position in large commercial jets.

Supply chain pressures have led to February deliveries falling 13% year-over-year to 35 aircraft, below expectations. Analysts note this points to a soft first quarter, but Barclays emphasizes Airbus's record backlog exceeding 8,000 orders as a buffer for future revenue.

The Airbus SE stock on Euronext Paris has shed 16.45% year-to-date, trading at levels that Barclays views as undervalued relative to peers like Boeing. Investors are monitoring upcoming Q3 2025 earnings on October 28 for updates on production guidance.

Jefferies Holds Steady at Hold with EUR 195 Target

Jefferies & Company kept its hold rating on Airbus SE, with a price target of EUR 195. Analyst Chloe Lemarie highlighted the weak February delivery numbers, signaling potential weakness in Q1 results. The stock's current valuation at around 30 times earnings leaves limited upside in the near term according to this view.

Airbus's commercial aircraft segment, which accounts for about 71% of net sales, remains the core driver but is vulnerable to these execution risks. The firm notes that while the order book is robust, realization depends on supply chain fixes.

Geographically, North America contributes 23.7% of sales, underscoring US market importance. For US investors, this exposure via ADRs or direct holdings offers a play on aviation rebound without full Boeing risk.

Berenberg Cuts Target on Supply Constraints

Berenberg reiterated hold but trimmed its Airbus SE price target from EUR 210 to EUR 190. The adjustment reflects 6-8% cuts to EPS forecasts driven by slower A320 production rates. Middle East exposure, now 11% of 2026-2030 deliveries, adds geopolitical risk amid regional tensions.

Despite short-term limited impact, persistent disruptions could lead to order deferrals. Currency hedging and inventory builds are expected to protect margins temporarily.

Overall analyst consensus leans buy, with an average target of EUR 218.60, implying over 30% upside from recent levels on Euronext Paris. This mixed but constructive backdrop keeps the stock in focus.

Defense and Aerospace Offset Commercial Weakness

Airbus's defense and space division, 17.3% of sales, benefits from rising global budgets. Military aircraft, satellites, and security systems see steady demand. US investors gain indirect exposure through NATO-aligned spending and transatlantic programs.

Helicopters contribute 11% of revenue, with civil and military variants serving diverse markets. As commercial aviation recovers post-pandemic, defense provides stability amid production hiccups.

With 157,935 employees, Airbus maintains scale advantages. Shareholder base includes 2.61% US holdings among top investors, reflecting cross-Atlantic interest.

Why US Investors Should Watch Airbus Closely

North America drives 23.7% of Airbus sales, with key US airlines ordering A320neo and A350 models. Unlike Boeing, Airbus avoids domestic US production biases, offering diversified exposure. Defense ties via joint programs enhance appeal.

US holders represent a small but growing share of ownership. With Boeing facing its own challenges, Airbus stands as Europe's counterweight, relevant for portfolios seeking aerospace balance.

Trading on Euronext Paris in EUR, US investors access via OTC (EADSY) or direct. Currency risk exists, but hedging mitigates for long-term plays.

Key Risks and Open Questions

Supply chain bottlenecks pose the biggest near-term threat, potentially delaying backlog conversion. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could impact 11% of future deliveries. Competition from Boeing remains fierce.

Regulatory scrutiny on emissions and sustainability adds costs. While consensus targets suggest upside, execution risks linger. Investors should track Q3 earnings for production updates.

Valuation at historical averages appears fair, but margin pressure from inventory and forex needs watching. Defense growth offers offset, but commercial execution is pivotal.

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Stocks are volatile financial instruments.