Airbus Doubles Down on Eastern Europe as Defence Orders Surge While Jet Deliveries Stumble

Airbus bets on Poland and Romania for defence growth, tripling Polish workforce and securing Romanian helicopter deal, while commercial deliveries drop 16% in Q1 2026.

The European aerospace giant is placing a big bet on Poland and Romania to shore up its military business, even as persistent supply chain headaches weigh on its core commercial aircraft operations. Airbus announced a sweeping expansion plan for Poland on May 5, 2026, committing to triple its local workforce to 1,500 employees and boost annual spending with Polish suppliers to $700 million by the end of the decade.

The push into Poland is part of a broader strategic pivot. Warsaw is seen as one of Europe’s fastest-growing aviation markets, and Airbus is looking to lock in production commitments while building a more resilient supply network. The company’s civil arm already has a firm foothold there: LOT Polish Airlines has placed orders for 84 A220 jets in both the -100 and -300 variants, with the first delivery slated for 2027. Airbus has also signaled interest in supplying widebody aircraft to the carrier.

On the defence side, Airbus Defence and Space, Thales Alenia Space, and Polish firm RADMOR signed a cooperation agreement in April 2026 to develop a geostationary defence satellite for Poland’s Ministry of Defence, backed by the EU’s “Readiness 2030” programme. Separately, Warsaw is evaluating the purchase of at least two Airbus A330 MRTT tanker aircraft, potentially financed through EU loans and positioned as an alternative to Boeing’s KC-46.

The Romanian deal adds further momentum. Bucharest has approved the acquisition of H225M Caracal military helicopters worth €1 billion, underscoring the growing heft of Airbus’s defence arm at a time when its civil side is under pressure. That pressure was evident in the first quarter of 2026: Airbus delivered just 114 commercial aircraft, a 16% drop from a year earlier, pushing group revenue down 7% to €12.7 billion. Exchange rate headwinds added to the pain.

Yet the defence division tells a different story. Its order intake nearly doubled to €5.0 billion in Q1, up from €2.6 billion, while adjusted EBIT climbed to €130 million from €77 million, driven mainly by the air power segment. The contrast between the two sides of the business could hardly be starker.

Management is sticking to its full-year guidance despite the rocky start. Airbus still expects around 870 deliveries in 2026, adjusted EBIT of roughly €7.5 billion, and free cash flow before customer financing of about €4.5 billion. The targets, however, come with a caveat: no further disruptions to supply chains or the global economy. Pratt & Whitney remains a bottleneck, with engine shortages hampering the production ramp-up for both the A220 and A320 families, which have ambitious rate targets for 2027 and 2028.

The stock has recovered about 7% over the past week but still trades nearly 9% below its level at the start of the year. With a relative strength index of around 11, the shares are technically deeply oversold — a reading rarely seen and often a precursor to a rebound. Whether the Romanian helicopter order and the broader defence surge can provide the catalyst for a sustained recovery will become clearer in the coming trading sessions. The real test for Airbus, however, will come with the half-year results this summer, when investors will see whether the operational headwinds are easing or the defence wins are merely masking deeper problems in the core business.