Aemetis Rides Biofuels Momentum as Indian Orders and U.S. Biogas Expansion Drive Rally

Aemetis shares surge 127% YTD to €3.08 as Indian biodiesel contracts and U.S. biogas progress offset negative equity concerns.

The rally in Aemetis shares shows no signs of cooling, with the stock punching through to a fresh 52-week high of €3.08 on Tuesday, representing a single-session gain of more than 16%. Since the start of the year, the equity has surged roughly 127%, a move that has caught the attention of traders and strategists alike. The advance comes as the company lays out a series of operational milestones across both its Indian and Californian operations, with the next major catalyst expected in May when quarterly results are due.

Indian Subsidiary Lands $24 Million in Biodiesel Allocations

A key driver of the recent optimism stems from developments in South Asia. Universal Biofuels, Aemetis’ Indian subsidiary, is executing allocations worth approximately $24 million, involving the delivery of more than 27 million liters of biodiesel to three state-owned oil companies. These contracts align with India’s national strategy to raise its biodiesel blending mandate to 5%, providing a supportive regulatory backdrop for the business.

Management is also preparing to list a minority stake in the Indian unit on a local exchange, a partial initial public offering designed to raise fresh capital for the facility near the port of Kakinada. That plant boasts an annual capacity of 80 million gallons, and the listing would allow Aemetis to tap local demand directly while reducing its reliance on U.S.-based funding sources.

U.S. Biogas Platform Scales Up as Keyes Modernization Nears Completion

Across the Atlantic, Aemetis is making headway with its renewable natural gas (RNG) platform. Twelve digesters are now operational, processing waste from 16 dairy farms, and the company is targeting an annual production capacity of 550,000 MMBtu by the end of 2025. This segment is viewed as a cornerstone for long-term profitability, though the financials remain under pressure.

Meanwhile, the modernization of the ethanol plant in Keyes, California, is approaching the finish line. The installation of a mechanical vapor recompression (MVR) system has secured the necessary permits, with commissioning slated for mid-year. The technology is expected to slash natural gas consumption at the site, improving operating margins in a state where energy costs are notoriously high.

Balance Sheet Concerns Temper Enthusiasm

Despite the share price surge, the company’s fundamentals remain a source of caution. Revenue has stagnated at $198 million, while the EBIT margin stands at a negative 25%. More troubling is the balance sheet: Aemetis carries negative equity of $307 million, a structural risk that analysts say could weigh on any sustained recovery.

Chart watchers are now eyeing the $3.00 level as a potential new support floor, with the next resistance zone sitting between $3.80 and $4.00. The stock’s breakout from its previous trading range has been fueled by the expansion announcement, but the gap between market enthusiasm and operational reality remains wide.

Additional Catalysts on the Horizon

Aemetis is also awaiting validation of new carbon intensity pathways from the California Air Resources Board (CARB), which could enhance the value of its emissions credits. Beyond RNG, the company is pursuing carbon capture projects and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production. Shareholders will have their say at the annual general meeting scheduled for late May, where the board of directors will be up for election.