Adidas Stock Rides Buyback and World Cup Momentum as Tariff Debate Heats Up Ahead of Q2 Results

Adidas treasury stock crosses 3% as accelerated buyback and World Cup marketing lift shares 4.9% in a month, but widening tariff estimates create uncertainty ahead of Q2 earnings.

Adidas has crossed a new milestone in its ongoing share repurchase program, pushing its treasury stock past the 3% threshold just as the sportswear giant prepares to outfit both finalists at this weekend's World Cup title match. The confluence of a stepped-up buyback and a marquee marketing moment has lifted the stock 4.9% over the past month, though a widening gap between the company's own tariff estimates and those of the market is keeping investors on edge ahead of the second-quarter earnings report on July 30.

The German group revealed in a voting rights notification that its holdings of own shares now stand at 3.04%, representing 5,466,771 voting rights — a sharp jump from 0.81% previously. That surge reflects the accelerated pace of the second tranche of the buyback program, which began on June 23. Between July 6 and July 10 alone, Adidas repurchased 268,915 shares on the open market, bringing the total bought in the second tranche to 687,019. In the preceding period from June 29 to July 2, the company had already snapped up 279,392 shares, underscoring the consistent tempo that drove the ownership stake through the 3% barrier.

On Friday, the World Cup final at MetLife Stadium in New York will see Spain and Argentina both take the pitch in Adidas kits, marking a rare dual-branding coup for the official tournament partner. To capitalize on the spotlight, the company has teamed up with artist Bad Bunny on a limited-edition "F50 Ghost Sprint" football boot, a move likely to generate buzz far beyond the sporting audience. The marketing bonanza arrives as the stock hovers around €180.75, with intraday moves pushing as high as €181.00 — still 12.47% below the 52-week high of €206.50 reached in July 2025.

Technically, the shares have carved out a short-term uptrend, now trading 7.66% above their 50-day moving average of €168.12, while the relative strength index sits at a neutral-to-bullish 56.5. The buyback engine is providing a natural floor, but a far bigger question is whether the underlying earnings trajectory can sustain the recovery.

That question revolves squarely around tariffs. Market estimates peg Adidas’ total tariff hit for 2026 at roughly €400 million, yet Chief Executive Bjørn Gulden has publicly guided for a net burden of just €200 million from U.S. duties. Last year, the company flagged a €100 million margin impact from tariffs, making the current divergence unusually wide. The range of analyst estimates has already widened in recent weeks, signaling growing uncertainty ahead of the Q2 numbers.

The first quarter, however, offered plenty of ammunition for the bulls. Revenue came in at €6.59 billion, up 14% on a currency-adjusted basis, with the World Cup contributing four percentage points of that growth. Earnings per share hit €2.72, beating the consensus estimate of €2.66, compared with €2.40 a year earlier. The direct-to-consumer channel was particularly robust: e-commerce surged 25% and own-store sales jumped 19%, while apparel — a key margin driver — expanded 31% in currency-adjusted terms. Gulden has set a medium-term target of a 10% EBIT margin by 2027, a threshold already surpassed in the first quarter.

Yet the recovery is not without its fissures. The profit warning issued alongside the first-quarter release — triggered by tariff and currency headwinds — still hangs over the stock, which has lost 12.35% over the past twelve months. Once the World Cup boost fades, new product lines will need to prove their staying power, and margin pressure from rivals remains a structural challenge.

The July 30 earnings release will provide the first real test of whether the World Cup marketing surge and ongoing buyback can offset the tariff overhang. If Adidas delivers another quarter of double-digit revenue growth and confirms its more benign tariff guidance, the path back toward the 52-week high could reopen. If the tariff bite proves heavier than management expects, the stock may slip back toward its 50-day average — and the gap between the company’s own numbers and the market’s fears will only widen.