Adidas Stock Gets a Marathon Boost Ahead of Q1 Earnings, but Tariff Clouds Loom

Adidas shares gain 0.8% after Sabastian Sawe runs first sub-2-hour marathon in Adizero shoes. Q1 earnings due April 29, with analysts eyeing inventory, China recovery, and tariff pressures.

Adidas shares edged higher on Monday, catching a tailwind from a historic weekend on the streets of London. Sabastian Sawe became the first athlete to complete an official marathon in under two hours, clocking 1:59:30 in the Adizero Adios Pro Evo 3. The second-place finisher, Yomif Kejelcha, also wore Adidas footwear, while only third-placed Jacob Kiplimo sported a Nike prototype. For analysts, it was a clear victory in the high-stakes battle of performance running shoes — a category that directly shapes brand perception and innovation credentials.

The stock rose roughly 0.8% on the day, settling near €138.50. That marks a modest recovery from the year's low of €130.60, but the shares remain almost 18% in the red since January and trade about 38% below their 52-week peak of €223.50.

Earnings on the Horizon

All eyes now turn to Wednesday, April 29, when Adidas releases its first-quarter 2026 results. The consensus among analysts points to revenue of around €6.3 billion, representing year-on-year growth of roughly 2%. Operating profit (EBIT) is expected to reach approximately €647 million, implying an operating margin of 10.3%.

For the full year, management has guided for currency-adjusted sales growth of between 5% and 9%, with operating profit climbing to some €2.3 billion. CEO Björn Gulden has set a medium-term target of achieving an EBIT margin of 10% by 2027.

Investors will be scrutinizing two areas in particular: inventory levels and the pace of recovery in China and North America. If the board reaffirms its annual guidance, the recent 5% rebound over the past 30 days could gain a solid foundation. A miss, however, would likely keep the stock far from its 52-week high for the foreseeable future.

Tariff Headwinds and the DTC Push

The macroeconomic backdrop remains challenging. Roughly 27% of Adidas's manufacturing is concentrated in Vietnam, a country that has been hit hard by US punitive tariffs. That pressure on margins helps explain much of the share price decline in recent months.

The company is fighting back with a renewed focus on direct-to-consumer sales. Its "adiClub Days SS26" campaign, launched April 23 in Singapore and running through May 6, offers exclusive member events designed to cut out intermediaries and boost profitability.

Analyst View: Cautiously Bullish

Bernstein Research has trimmed its price target for Adidas from €255 to €245 but maintains an "Outperform" rating. Analyst Aneesha Sherman points to stepped-up marketing activity around the upcoming football World Cup as a potential revenue driver in the months ahead.

Dividend Vote Next Week

Shortly after the earnings release, shareholders will gather for the annual general meeting on May 7, 2026, to vote on a proposed dividend of €2.80 per share — a 40% increase from the prior year. If approved, the payout is scheduled for May 11.

Whether Wednesday's numbers can justify that payout — and whether the marathon magic proves more than a fleeting boost — will determine if the stock's recent recovery has legs or is merely a temporary sigh of relief.