Adidas Stock: A Critical Week of Earnings and Shareholder Signals

Adidas shares down 30% YoY. Q1 results and AGM to show if operational strength can offset €400M tariff/currency hit, as management cuts 2026 profit target.

Adidas shares, trading around €138.45, find themselves nearly 30% below their level from a year ago. The coming days will test whether the company's operational strengths can outweigh significant external pressures, with a pivotal first-quarter report and the Annual General Meeting set to define the near-term narrative.

The immediate focus is the Q1 2026 results, due on April 29th. Analysts anticipate earnings per share of €2.67, an 11% increase from the €2.40 reported in the prior-year quarter. Revenue is expected to reach €6.33 billion, a rise of roughly 2.8%. These figures will offer the first concrete data point since management outlined a substantial financial headwind. CEO Bjørn Gulden has quantified the challenge, noting that anticipated tariffs and currency effects are set to erode approximately €400 million from a projected €650 million operational improvement for 2026.

This recalibration has led the management team to target an operating profit of around €2.3 billion for the year, which sits about 15% below the analyst consensus of €2.72 billion that prevailed before the tariff announcements. Consequently, the goal of achieving a double-digit EBIT margin has been pushed back to 2027 or 2028.

The source of the pressure is highly concentrated. A full 27% of Adidas’s total procurement volume originates in Vietnam, a supply chain now facing punishing US tariffs. While 92% of production is based in Asia, suggesting diversification, alternative locations offer little relief: potential tariffs stand at 32% for Indonesia, 26% for India, and 49% for Cambodia. Relocating the specialized manufacturing required for performance footwear is not a short-term fix. The most probable countermeasure is mid-to-high single-digit price increases, but many prices are already locked in with retailers, meaning adjustments won’t reach consumers for at least six months.

Despite these challenges, internal confidence appears firm. Major shareholder Nassef Sawiris purchased shares worth approximately €11 million in late March. CFO Harm Ohlmeyer personally acquired stock valued at €332,125 at €132.85 per share—close to the annual low of €130.60. Shareholders gathering at the Annual General Meeting in Fürth on May 7th will be asked to approve a proposed 40% dividend increase to €2.80 per share, up from €2.00. A share buyback program of up to €1 billion is already underway.

Analyst opinions reflect the uncertain landscape. Of 28 analysts surveyed, 22 maintain a "Buy" recommendation, with an average price target of €198.35. However, views are disparate. Citigroup is notably bullish with a €277 target, while DZ Bank suggests a fair value of €206. Others are more cautious: Berenberg rates the stock a "Hold" with a €190 target, and RBC Capital Markets cites persistent demand risks in its €160 assessment.

Operationally, Adidas continues to see robust performance in areas within its control. The direct-to-consumer business is growing at a double-digit pace, fueled by the enduring lifestyle trend surrounding its Samba and Gazelle sneaker lines. Looking further ahead, many strategists point to the 2026 FIFA World Cup as a potential major revenue catalyst for the core brand. Whether these positive drivers can fully compensate for the external financial drag will be the central question answered in the weeks ahead.