A Wolfram Mine Becomes a Chipmaker's Lifeline

A looming tungsten hexafluoride shortage by 2026, driven by China's export controls, spotlights Almonty's Sangdong mine as a critical non-Chinese supply source for the semiconductor industry.

The global semiconductor industry is facing a new and critical supply chain threat, with a looming shortage of tungsten hexafluoride—an essential process gas for chip fabrication—expected to hit as early as the second half of 2026. Japanese suppliers, who provide roughly 25% of the global supply, have already warned South Korean giants Samsung and SK Hynix of impending difficulties. This crisis, driven by China's tightening export controls on critical materials, has suddenly cast a spotlight on a single operational mine outside China: Almonty Industries' Sangdong tungsten operation in South Korea.

Officially commissioned in March, the Sangdong mine is now processing approximately 640,000 tonnes of ore annually. With South Korea's stockpiles reportedly only lasting until June, Sangdong is increasingly viewed by Western-aligned chip firms as the sole reliable non-Chinese alternative. This strategic positioning was reflected in the stock's recent performance, which posted a weekly gain of over 16% to trade at 24.75 CAD. The shares remain about 18% below their 52-week high but stand more than 700% above their annual low.

Almonty's transition from developer to producer is backed by its 2025 financials, which showed a 13% revenue increase to 32.5 million CAD. This growth was fueled by a staggering 534% surge in the tungsten APT spot price to 2,250 USD per metric tonne unit (MTU). The company's financial foundation was also solidified by two capital raises that boosted liquidity from 7.8 million to 268.4 million CAD, providing a war chest for its next major project.

That project is the Gentung-Browns Lake operation in Montana, slated for commissioning in the second half of 2026. Success there would mark Almonty's first production on North American soil, creating a crucial supply base for defense and industrial customers. This expansion comes as the broader critical minerals sector sees a supportive price environment, with neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide prices, for instance, sitting around 123 USD/kg—a 60% increase since the last major producers' quarterly reports.

Despite the operational progress, a significant valuation gap persists. While eight analysts unanimously recommend buying the stock with an average price target of 23.71 CAD, an independent discounted cash flow model pegs the intrinsic value at 46.30 CAD, implying a discount of roughly 47%. Analysts at GBC recently raised their target to 28.60 CAD, citing a geopolitically-driven "tungsten super-cycle." Market estimates project EBITDA could reach 260 million CAD this fiscal year, potentially climbing to 844 million CAD by 2027 if Sangdong's second-phase expansion proceeds on schedule.

The company's 2025 net loss of 161.91 million CAD is attributed largely to non-cash valuation adjustments. Its price-to-book ratio of 19.3 indicates the market is already pricing in substantial future growth, while an annualized 30-day volatility above 100% underscores the nervousness in the current price action.

Investors are now looking ahead to two key dates: the next quarterly report on May 21 and the Annual General Meeting on June 8, where management is expected to provide updates on the Phase 2 expansion and the integration of the US assets. As the tungsten timer ticks down for chipmakers, Almonty Industries finds itself at the convergence of geopolitical necessity and hard operational reality.