A Tungsten Lifeline: Almonty Industries Powers Up as Chipmakers Sound the Alarm

Tungsten prices triple as China cuts exports, threatening chipmakers. Almonty's new South Korean mine, with U.S. tariff exemption, aims to fill the critical supply gap.

A critical shortage of tungsten, the hard metal essential for semiconductors, aerospace, and defense, is pushing prices to unprecedented levels and sending shockwaves through global supply chains. At the center of this scramble stands Almonty Industries Inc., a mining company whose strategic moves are drawing intense investor interest as it begins production from a key asset in South Korea.

The price for ammonium paratungstate (APT), a key benchmark, recently surged past $3,000 per metric tonne, marking an all-time high. This represents a staggering increase of more than 50% in just the past month and a tripling of the price since late December. The catalyst is a severe supply squeeze, with China, Russia, and North Korea controlling roughly 95% of global output. Recent drastic export cuts by Beijing have left manufacturers desperate for alternative sources.

Japanese suppliers of tungsten hexafluoride—a vital process gas for etching 3D NAND memory chips—have warned South Korean clients, including giants like Samsung Electronics, that deliveries may become unsustainable by this summer. Existing inventories are projected to run dry as early as June. This crisis creates a narrow and urgent window for new suppliers to establish themselves.

Almonty has commenced operations at its Sangdong mine in South Korea, strategically positioned near these beleaguered chip fabrication plants. The mine, reopened after over 30 years, is now in its first phase of production, targeting approximately 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate annually. A planned expansion by 2027 is set to double that output. At full capacity from both phases, Sangdong could supply an estimated 40% of the world's tungsten demand from outside China.

The company's access to the crucial U.S. market was solidified last week when Washington granted its products an exemption from new import tariffs. This decision underscores tungsten's status as a strategic material for American defense contractors and high-tech manufacturers. The exemption is perfectly timed with another looming U.S. policy shift: starting January 1, 2027, the Department of Defense will require its contractors to source tungsten exclusively from non-Chinese suppliers.

Financially, Almonty is transitioning from a capital-intensive development phase to a producer. Its fiscal 2025 results showed revenue rising 13% to CAD 32.5 million, but high start-up and administrative costs led to an adjusted EBITDA loss of CAD 17 million. The net loss reported was approximately CAD 161.9 million, which management attributes largely to non-cash valuation effects on derivatives and warrants.

The balance sheet, however, is robust for funding growth. Following a Nasdaq listing in July 2025 that raised $90 million and a subsequent offering in December that brought in CAD 129.4 million, the company's cash position ballooned to CAD 268.4 million at the end of 2025, up from just CAD 7.8 million a year earlier.

Analysts are rapidly recalibrating their models to account for the new production and favorable market dynamics. Expectations for 2026 are dramatic: revenue is projected to leap to CAD 747.7 million, with EBITDA forecast at CAD 488.1 million—implying a margin above 50%. Production is expected to surge from 58,000 to 267,537 metric units, while unit costs are predicted to fall from $345 to $266.

This optimism is reflected in a wave of analyst upgrades and growing institutional ownership. The number of funds holding Almonty stock jumped 55% last quarter to 107. Recent analyst actions include:
* B. Riley Financial maintaining a "Buy" rating with a $23.00 USD target.
* DA Davidson setting a price target of $25.00 USD.
* GBC raising its target from CAD 9.00 to CAD 28.60.
* Diamond Equity Research doubling its 2026 EPS estimate to $0.45.

The stock, trading around CAD 23.74, has gained 668% over the past year, though it remains about 22% below its March 2026 peak.

Beyond South Korea, Almonty is developing a second strategic asset: the Gentung Browns Lake project in Montana. The deposit holds 7.53 million tonnes at a grade of 0.315% tungsten trioxide, with production targeted for the second half of 2026 and an annual capacity of roughly 140,000 metric units. This positions the company to directly benefit from the Pentagon's 2027 sourcing mandate. For investors, the coming quarters will be about execution—delivering on promised production volumes to fundamentally justify the market's soaring valuation.