A Surge in Short-Term Bullish Bets on Super Micro Computer

Super Micro Computer US86800U1043

While shares of Super Micro Computer continue to trade weakly, hovering around $30 on Friday—nearly 50% below their October peaks—a significant and contrasting signal is emerging from the options market. Large-scale investors are accumulating substantial positions in very short-dated call options, indicating that certain market participants are positioning for a potential rapid rebound.

The stock's recent performance has been challenging, with a decline of 40% to 50% since autumn. This downturn was triggered by a disappointing first-quarter report in early November, where the company failed to meet the high growth expectations surrounding its AI server business. Investor concerns are further fueled by reports of delayed orders and contracting gross margins. The $30 price level is now viewed as a critical technical support zone; a sustained break below it could precipitate further selling pressure.

Compressed Valuation Offers a Contrarian Case

The sharp sell-off has dramatically compressed the company's valuation. Super Micro Computer now trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 17, a level notably below that of many growth-oriented peers in the technology sector. However, this valuation discount is contingent on the company returning to profit growth in the coming quarters. The pivotal question for investors is whether the $30 support will hold or if shares will test lower levels.

Unusual Options Activity Hints at a Year-End Reversal

Market data reveals a concentrated and aggressive bet on a near-term price recovery. For options expiring on January 2, 2026—in just a matter of days—calls with strike prices of $31 and $32.50 were purchased in exceptionally high volume. The trading volume for these contracts exceeded the existing open interest by more than 25 times.

This activity is a clear, bullish signal from the derivatives market. It suggests that some institutional investors believe the stock has become oversold in the short term and are anticipating a technical rebound before the year closes. This positioning stands in stark contrast to the weak price chart, setting up a tense showdown between prevailing bearish sentiment and this surge in speculative optimism for a swift turnaround.