A Pivotal Week for MP Materials: Earnings and Tariff Shifts Converge

MP Materials faces a pivotal week with Q4 earnings and shifting U.S.-China trade dynamics following a Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, impacting rare earths strategy.

This week presents a critical juncture for MP Materials, with two significant events poised to influence its trajectory. The rare earths producer is set to release its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results on Thursday, against a backdrop of immediate shifts in U.S. trade policy following a landmark Supreme Court decision.

Quarterly Financial Results in Focus

MP Materials will announce its Q4 2025 earnings after the U.S. market closes on Thursday. A conference call is scheduled for 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time, according to the company.

Market expectations, as cited by Zacks, point toward higher profits year-over-year alongside lower revenues. The company outperformed in the previous quarter, reporting a loss of $0.10 per share against an anticipated loss of $0.14. Over the last four reporting periods, MP Materials has exceeded consensus EPS estimates twice. For the upcoming report, MarketBeat notes a consensus EPS expectation of $0.08, which would signal a move back toward profitability.

Trade Policy Landscape Alters Following Court Ruling

The operational environment shifted on Friday when the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the broad Trump-era tariffs that had been enacted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). This ruling limits Washington's trade policy flexibility, particularly concerning China.

In response, former President Trump announced a new global tariff via Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, as reported by CNBC. The levy is set to commence at 10%, rising later to 15%, and is effective immediately.

For MP Materials, this is not merely political noise. China controls approximately 90% of the world's rare earth refining capacity and about 70% of mining output, according to Reuters. Any recalibration in the trade conflict's dynamics could impact the rationale for U.S. government support of domestic supply chains. Analysts at Goldman Sachs suggested the net effect could be a roughly 5% reduction in U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, potentially easing pressure on Beijing in negotiations concerning rare earths access.

Commodity Price Surge Offers Temporary Tailwind

A positive signal ahead of the earnings release comes from the commodity market. The price for neodymium-praseodymium oxide (NdPr) reached $123 per kilogram on February 18, its highest level since July 2022, as noted by Reuters. This marks a sharp increase from July 2025, when NdPr traded at $63 per kilogram—coinciding with MP Materials' announcement of a multi-billion dollar partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense.

Critically, that Pentagon agreement includes a price floor of $110 per kilogram. At current market prices, this government support mechanism would not be required. However, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence cautioned in the Reuters report that these elevated prices are likely temporary, with a downward correction anticipated by the end of March.

Reuters also reported that the U.S. defense deal required a halt to shipments of mined material to China. This coincided with reduced mining and smelting quotas within China, contributing to the current supply tightness. A key question for Thursday's report will be whether the NdPr price surge has already translated into visibly improved revenue and margins.

Stock Performance and Forward Guidance

Despite a strong twelve-month performance, the stock has recently faced pressure. Shares closed at $55.70 on Monday, representing a decline of roughly 20% over the past 30 days, CNBC reported. While Simply Wall St. data shows a 128% gain over the last twelve months, the current price remains well below the 52-week high of $100.25 reached in October 2025.

Beyond the Q4 figures, investor attention on Thursday will center on the company's forward guidance. Updates are expected on the magnet manufacturing facility in Texas, the progress of the heavy rare earths separation project (targeting mid-2026), and management's assessment of how the Supreme Court ruling and new tariffs may affect the supply chain and government support frameworks. The financial position will also be scrutinized; Simply Wall St. calculates a negative free cash flow of $294.49 million over the trailing twelve months.