A Pivotal April Awaits ASML Investors

ASML faces key events as shares slide. Strong EUV demand from SK Hynix contrasts with job cuts and potential US export control expansion impacting China sales.

ASML Holding NV (ASML) shareholders face a densely packed schedule of key corporate events over the coming fortnight. This critical period, featuring an earnings release, an annual meeting, and a dividend decision, arrives as the company's shares have recently experienced notable downward pressure.

Robust Demand Amidst Geopolitical Headwinds

Despite recent challenges, the underlying demand for ASML's advanced lithography systems remains strong. In a landmark deal this March, SK Hynix placed an order for Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) machines valued at approximately $8 billion. Market analysts, including Bernstein's David Dao, estimate this single order—the largest publicly disclosed EUV order to date—comprises around 30 systems destined for producing High-Bandwidth Memory crucial for artificial intelligence applications.

This robust order intake provides a counterbalance to recent market concerns. The share price has declined by approximately 13.5% in recent weeks, a drop initially triggered by the company's announcement of 1,700 job cuts, which led to strikes in late March. Pressure continued with a further 2.6% loss on Tuesday following news that a bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers introduced a bill. This legislation could potentially expand export controls to cover less advanced chipmaking equipment—precisely the category of machinery Chinese manufacturers have still been permitted to purchase.

First-Quarter Results on Deck

All eyes will be on the financial update scheduled for April 15. Chief Executive Officer Christophe Fouquet and Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen are set to unveil the first-quarter 2026 results. Management has provided guidance for the quarter, targeting net sales between €8.2 billion and €8.9 billion, with an anticipated gross margin ranging from 51% to 53%.

For the full 2026 fiscal year, the leadership team has set a revenue target of €34 billion to €39 billion. These near-term goals align with a longer-term ambition: the company maintains its forecast for annual sales to reach between €44 billion and €60 billion by 2030, accompanied by gross margins of 56% to 60%.

The previous fiscal year, 2025, saw ASML achieve net sales of €32.7 billion, representing a 15% increase over 2024. Earnings per share saw even stronger growth, climbing 28.5% to €24.73.

Share Buyback Program Progresses

The company's share repurchase initiative, launched in January 2026 with an authorization of up to €12 billion, continues as planned. During the week of March 30 to April 2, ASML purchased nearly 88,000 of its own shares for a total consideration of around €100 million. The company's stated intention is to cancel all repurchased shares, except for those earmarked for employee incentive programs.

Annual Meeting and Final Dividend Vote

The Annual General Meeting (AGM) is convened for April 22 in Veldhoven. The agenda includes several key resolutions, notably the appointment of Marco Pieters to the role of Chief Technology Officer and the reappointment of CFO Roger Dassen and Chief Operations Officer Frédéric Schneider-Maunoury.

Shareholders will also be asked to approve a final dividend of €2.70 per share. This payment would bring the total dividend for 2025 to €7.50 per share, following three interim payments of €1.60 each. This total distribution marks a 17% year-over-year increase. For investors trading on Euronext Amsterdam, the ex-dividend date is set for April 24, with the payment to follow on May 5.