A Market Shrugs at a Sold-Out Pipeline: Micron’s 15% Slide Meets June 24’s Verdict

Micron shares fall on Broadcom-led chip selloff and macro headwinds, but record HBM margins and locked-in 2026 production set the stage for a pivotal earnings report on June 24.

The numbers tell a story of scarcity, soaring demand, and record margins. The stock tells a different one. Micron Technology shares tumbled more than 15% in a single week, closing Friday at €755.00, even as the company’s core business has never looked stronger. That divergence is the central tension ahead of the most consequential earnings report of this cycle.

The selloff had little to do with Micron itself. It started with Broadcom, whose cautious remarks on AI-chip revenue triggered a 12% plunge in its own stock on June 4 and dragged the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 10.3% on Friday — its worst single-day loss since March 2020. Then a hotter-than-expected US jobs report added macro pressure: 172,000 new nonfarm payrolls in May, nearly double the forecast, dashing hopes for an early rate cut. High-multiple tech names bore the brunt.

Inside Micron, however, the operational picture remains extraordinary. The company reported net revenue of $23.86 billion in its most recent quarter, nearly triple the $8.05 billion a year earlier, with GAAP net income of $13.79 billion. The gross margin is now tracking toward an eye-popping 81% — unheard of for a traditionally cyclical memory player.

The driver is High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), the specialised chips that power AI training and inference. Micron’s entire HBM production for fiscal 2026 is already locked in under long-term contracts, and the company says it can meet only 50% to 66% of total demand. Nvidia has certified Micron as an HBM4 supplier for its upcoming Vera Rubin platform, and CEO Jensen Huang described AI stocks this week as “very cheap,” adding that the global memory shortage will last years.

A $40 Billion Guidance Test

All eyes are on June 24, when Micron reports results for its third fiscal quarter. Analysts expect adjusted earnings of $19.63 per share — a 927% surge from the prior year — on revenue of roughly $34.3 billion, according to the primary source, while the secondary source puts consensus slightly lower at around $33.8 billion. The company itself guided record revenue of $33.5 billion with a plus-or-minus $750 million range, and adjusted EPS of $19.15.

The real hinge, though, is the outlook. The official guidance implies a revenue run-rate that already points to roughly $40 billion annualised. If Micron’s fourth-quarter forecast clears that threshold — the consensus sits near $39.6 billion — it would lend fresh ammunition to the bull case. A miss, by contrast, would validate the recent selloff.

The analyst community is split. Morgan Stanley recently more than doubled its price target to $1,050, citing the multi-year nature of the memory shortage. But the broader consensus average stands at just €641.72 — roughly 15% below the current €755.00 price. That gap underscores how far the stock has run ahead of many models. The shares are still up 180–181% year-to-date and trade 142% above their long-term moving average.

Technically, the pullback has cooled a previously overheated rally. The relative strength index sits at 56.2, neutral territory — not oversold, but no longer flashing red. The stock remains 41% above its 50-day average.

CEO Sale: Routine, Not Revelation

Adding to the noise was a sale by CEO Sanjay Mehrotra, who offloaded 37,439 shares on May 29 for roughly $38.4 million at prices between $960 and $978. The transaction was executed under a 10b5-1 trading plan set on January 30 — a pre-scheduled move with no bearing on current market sentiment. Mehrotra still holds nearly one million shares worth over $850 million.

The counterargument is real: memory cycles eventually turn, and high prices inevitably attract capacity. SK Hynix, Micron’s South Korean rival, remains the dominant HBM supplier to Nvidia’s key platforms. Micron itself has flagged capital expenditures exceeding $25 billion this fiscal year, with further expansion planned.

But for now, the fundamental squeeze is intact. DRAM prices are forecast to rise 58% to 63% in Q2 2026, according to TrendForce. Capacity expansion of roughly $200 billion is on the drawing board, with AI training and inference expected to account for more than 55% of HBM demand within the same period.

June 24 will not just be another earnings call. It is the moment the market decides whether a stock that has done nothing wrong deserves to be priced for a cyclical peak or a structural expansion. The sold-out pipeline says one thing. The price action says another. The numbers will settle it.