A $9 Billion Copper Deal Stalls Over Sanctioned Billionaire's Claims

A strategic Western consortium's bid to buy Glencore's Congo copper and cobalt mines is stalled by Dan Gertler's royalty claims, hindering efforts to counter China's mineral dominance.

A strategic $9 billion transaction designed to secure Western supplies of copper and cobalt has encountered a significant roadblock. The deal, which would see a consortium acquire a major stake in two key Congolese mines from Glencore, is being held up by royalty claims held by Israeli billionaire Dan Gertler, who has been under U.S. sanctions since 2017.

Strategic Move to Counter Chinese Dominance

The Orion Critical Minerals Consortium, backed by Abu Dhabi's ADQ and the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), aims to purchase a 40% interest in Glencore’s Congo assets: Mutanda Mining and Kamoto Copper Company. The implied total enterprise value for these operations is approximately $9 billion. In 2025, the combined output from these mines was nearly 248,000 tonnes of copper and 33,500 tonnes of cobalt.

This initiative is a direct response to China's commanding position in the critical minerals sector. Beijing controls roughly 80% of the world's cobalt refining capacity and dominates mining operations within the Democratic Republic of Congo. The consortium was established with a planned investment exceeding $5 billion to reduce this dependency. Each month of delay in finalizing the agreement strengthens China's entrenched position.

Gertler's royalty interests on the mines have so far been serviced in non-U.S. currency to technically avoid triggering sanctions. However, achieving a clean transfer or settlement of these claims remains the final regulatory hurdle—a politically complex challenge that is far from simple to resolve.

Portfolio Restructuring Funds Copper Ambitions

Concurrently, Glencore is advancing a broader portfolio restructuring. The company values the planned sale of its 70% stake in Kazakh subsidiary Kazzinc to entrepreneur Shakhmurat Mutalip at between $4 and $4.5 billion. Reports suggest Glencore may provide a portion of the financing for the deal itself. While Kazzinc is among Glencore's more profitable units, bolstered by high gold prices, it no longer fits the strategic focus on copper and other future-facing metals.

Glencore's adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was $13.5 billion, marking a 6% decline from the previous year. However, performance improved markedly in the second half, with a 49% increase compared to the first six months. The company also plans to cut around 1,000 jobs and implement cost savings totaling $1 billion by the end of 2026.

The company's shares have gained approximately 26% since the start of the year, trading just below their 52-week high of €6.13. At the Annual General Meeting on May 28, management is expected to detail its strategy for reaching an annual copper production target of 1.6 million tonnes by 2035. The shadow of the failed mega-merger with Rio Tinto also lingers; under UK takeover rules, a cooling-off period will not end before August 2026.