2G Energy: Political Gridlock in Berlin Casts Shadow Over Record-Breaking Share Rally

2G Energy shares surge over 50% in 2025 to near all-time highs, but political uncertainty over CHP subsidies and IT migration challenges pose risks to future growth.

The stock has already more than doubled in value since the start of 2025, yet the biggest test for 2G Energy may lie not in its order books but in the corridors of power in Berlin. The Heeker combined heat and power (CHP) specialist is riding a wave of momentum that has propelled its shares to fresh all-time highs, but regulatory uncertainty at home threatens to puncture the rally.

On Friday, the stock changed hands at €56.20, just shy of the €56.25 all-time peak recorded on 6 May. The year-to-date gain now stands at over 50%, with the share price trading comfortably above its 50-day moving average — a clear signal of the sustained upward trajectory that has characterised recent months.

Conference Appearance Backed by Solid Fundamentals

When 2G Energy takes the stage at the German Spring Conference in Frankfurt from 11 to 12 May, it will do so armed with a robust set of prior-year numbers. Total revenue for 2025 climbed to approximately €398 million, representing a 6% increase. New plant installations grew by 11%, while the service business — despite initial teething problems linked to an ERP migration — maintained a record level of around €169 million.

For 2026, management has set its sights on revenue of between €440 million and €490 million, with an EBIT margin of 9% to 11%. The second half of the year is expected to see the first invoiced deliveries to US data centres, a growth avenue that analysts believe is not yet fully reflected in the current valuation.

The Berlin Conundrum

The political backdrop provides the real context for the stock's trajectory. The EU Commission and the German government have agreed on a power plant strategy that envisions tenders for 12 gigawatts of controllable capacity as early as 2026, followed by a technology-neutral capacity market from 2032. 2G Energy insists its CHP units already meet the required technical specifications, including hydrogen-readiness.

But a significant vulnerability remains. Critics warn that decentralised providers could be excluded from the new subsidy framework. Together with the Federal Association for Combined Heat and Power and the North Rhine-Westphalia Renewable Energy Association, 2G Energy is pressing the government to place greater emphasis on decentralised technologies. A swift extension of the CHP Act is seen as a prerequisite — without it, a slump in domestic demand could follow.

IT Migration Weighs on Reporting

Operationally, the ongoing IT overhaul continues to be a drag. The ERP migration has temporarily constrained service volumes and delayed order intake from Eastern Europe. As a direct consequence, the 2025 consolidated financial statements and the 2026 half-year report will be published later than usual.

Dividends Remain Untouched

The dividend story, however, remains unaffected. 2G Energy has paid out without interruption for 14 consecutive years, with the last four distributions all showing an upward trend. The most recent increase of nearly 18% signals management's determination to maintain shareholder returns even in a regulatory environment that remains far from settled.

A Tale of Two Markets

For the first time, international sales are contributing roughly the same amount to total revenue as the domestic market — a milestone that underscores the company's successful geographic diversification. The biogas business is also expected to gain momentum over the course of the year.

Yet the political standoff in Germany remains the single biggest overhang for the stock. Until the CHP Act is finally passed, the domestic business lacks the long-term planning certainty that investors crave. The rapidly expanding US operations and the upcoming data centre deliveries provide a partial buffer, but the second half of 2025 will reveal whether that cushion is thick enough to absorb any shocks from Berlin.