Bayer Plots Accelerated Biofuel Push While Awaiting Supreme Court Landmark Ruling

Bayer awaits Supreme Court Roundup liability ruling in June, while accelerating Camelina biofuels with bp. Q1 sales beat forecasts, stock under pressure.

The German pharmaceutical and agricultural giant is juggling two high-stakes narratives that could reshape its outlook: a potential legal turning point in the U.S. Supreme Court this June and a fast-tracked expansion into next-generation biofuels. Both carry significant implications for the company's future direction and its beleaguered share price.

Camelina scale-up gathers speed

Bayer has decided to bring forward its North American Camelina acreage target from the mid-2030s to an earlier date, driven by surging interest in renewable fuels following the Iran conflict. Peter Muller, a Bayer executive, told Reuters that the company now aims to plant several million acres of the oilseed crop in North America, conditional on sustained market demand. Expansion into other regions is also under consideration.

Camelina, a second-generation feedstock that can be grown as a cover crop, avoids the food-versus-fuel conflicts and deforestation risks associated with corn or rapeseed. Bayer is on the verge of securing an offtake agreement with an as-yet-unnamed processor, which would provide farmers with guaranteed demand — a critical enabler for rapid acreage growth. The acceleration builds on a partnership with bp announced in May 2026, under which the two companies will co-market Camelina under the newgold® brand. bp contributes refining know-how, while Bayer brings seed technology and farmer networks. The duo are targeting the biodiesel, renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel markets, which Bayer estimates could reach 40 billion gallons by 2040.

Supreme Court due date draws near

While the Camelina story offers a glimpse of Bayer's long-term agricultural pivot, the immediate focus for many shareholders remains the U.S. Supreme Court. In June, the court is expected to rule on Monsanto v. Durnell, a case involving Missouri resident John Durnell, who developed cancer after two decades of using the glyphosate-based herbicide Roundup. A jury had awarded him $1.25 million. The central legal question is whether Bayer can be held liable under state law when the EPA did not require a cancer warning on the product's label.

A favorable verdict for Bayer would render approximately 80% of the outstanding glyphosate claims — potentially as many as 100,000 cases — invalid. Conversely, an adverse ruling would keep the litigation floodgates wide open. Parallel to the court process, Bayer is advancing a $7 billion class settlement that would cover current and future claims. A Missouri court has already given preliminary approval; a final hearing is set for July.

Solid Q1 performance fails to lift the stock

Against this legal backdrop, Bayer's operating performance remains steady. In the first quarter of 2026, the Crop Science division posted currency- and portfolio-adjusted sales growth of 6.8% to €7.558 billion, while divisional EBITDA rose 17.9% to €3.014 billion. Adjusted earnings per share came in at €2.71, comfortably ahead of market expectations. Management subsequently confirmed its full-year outlook: group revenue between €44.5 billion and €46.5 billion, and adjusted EPS of €4.10 to €4.60.

The stock, however, has been unable to shake off its gloom. Shares recently traded at €36.16, up nearly 3% on the day, but remain below the 50-day moving average of €38.18. That technical ceiling underscores persistent weakness: the stock has fallen roughly 30% from its February high of €49.93 and is down approximately 5% year-to-date. For now, the Camelina acceleration remains a narrative rather than a catalyst — its credibility hinges on Bayer closing the promised offtake deal in the coming weeks and translating ambition into signed contracts. Until then, the Supreme Court ruling looms as the single most consequential event on the calendar.