XP cuts target for Grupo Mateus stock to BRL 5.00

Published on 10/14/2026 at 06:10 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

XP cut EBITDA and net-income estimates 28.00-30.00 percent for 2027 on October 6, 2026. Its BRL 5.00 target covers Grupo Mateus stock.

Estimate reset and reporting dates

XP Investimentos cut its Grupo Mateus target to BRL 5.00 on October 6, 2026.
Net revenue increased 12.20 percent year over year to BRL 9.85 billion in the second quarter of 2026.
Grupo Mateus is scheduled to report third-quarter results on November 12, 2026.

Grupo Mateus, BRGMATACNOR7, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

XP Investimentos cut its target for Grupo Mateus stock to BRL 5.00 on October 6, 2026, while downgrading the shares to Neutral. The update reduced projected EBITDA and net income for 2027 by 28.00-30.00 percent, making profitability the central issue for the Brazilian grocery retailer.

Three dated market markers

On March 11, 2026, Grupo Mateus reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share of BRL 0.17 against a BRL 0.18 consensus estimate, according to Investing.com.

On August 13, 2026, the company reported second-quarter 2026 net revenue of BRL 9.85 billion and earnings per share of BRL 0.10, versus a BRL 0.13 estimate, according to Investing.com. On October 6, 2026, XPi reduced its 2027 price target to BRL 5.00 and moved its rating from Buy to Neutral.

What the estimate cut means

The second-quarter numbers show a split picture. According to FreshPlaza, revenue rose 12.20 percent year over year and 4.80 percent sequentially to BRL 9.90 billion in the second quarter of 2026. First-half 2026 net revenue reached BRL 19.30 billion, up 12.50 percent year over year.

Profitability was less convincing. Grupo Mateus recorded net income of BRL 236.81 million in the second quarter of 2026, compared with BRL 212.88 million in the first quarter, while the latest earnings-per-share result missed the BRL 0.13 consensus by BRL 0.03. XPi also lowered its estimated revenue growth from 7.51 percent to 6.41 percent for 2027.

Next reporting dates

Grupo Mateus is scheduled to publish its third-quarter 2026 results on November 12, 2026, followed by a presentation on November 13, 2026, according to TraderNews. The figures will show whether the company can convert revenue growth into stronger margins and cash flow.

B3 quote and valuation

The latest B3 quote was BRL 5.43 on October 13, 2026 at 9:31 p.m. BRT. The 52-week range was BRL 3.43 to BRL 6.64, and market capitalization was BRL 12.5 billion on that date. The quote places the stock 18.22 percent below its 52-week high, leaving the earnings update as the next quantified test for XPi's lower 2027 estimates.