XP cuts Marcopolo stock to Neutral as second-half margins weaken

Published on 10/02/2026 at 03:04 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

XP set a BRL 5.00 target for Marcopolo stock on September 17, 2026. Second-quarter net income fell 15.50 percent year over year to BRL 271.20 million.

Marcopolo, BRPOMOACNPR7, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

On September 17, 2026, XP Investimentos cut its rating on Marcopolo stock to Neutral and set a BRL 5.00 target, as Money Times reported. The call reflects weaker second-half profitability and limited visibility for a near-term earnings recovery.

Margins trail production growth

Marcopolo posted BRL 2.37 billion of revenue in the second quarter of 2026, up 3.00 percent from the same period of 2025. Production reached 4,105 units, an 8.00 percent increase, but the change in sales mix reduced profitability, according to Jornal do Comercio.

Net income fell 15.50 percent to BRL 271.20 million in the second quarter of 2026, while EBITDA declined 15.00 percent to BRL 338.60 million. The EBITDA margin dropped from 17.30 percent to 14.30 percent, and the net margin decreased from 13.90 percent to 11.40 percent.

Investor Day shifts the debate

At the September 9, 2026, investor presentation, management pointed to a possible recovery in Argentina's bus market in 2027. Revenue from Argentina reached BRL 212.10 million in the first half of 2026, compared with BRL 875.40 million for the full year of 2025, as The Fund reported.

The immediate issue is mix rather than production alone. Micro-buses sold through public programs carry lower value and margins than larger private-market vehicles, leaving revenue growth disconnected from earnings growth. XP projected a 14.90 percent EBITDA margin and BRL 950.00 million of net income for 2027, 19.00 percent below consensus, according to Money Times.

B3 quote and valuation

Marcopolo preferred shares were last at BRL 4.20 on B3 at 2:32 a.m. CEST on October 2, 2026. The market capitalization was BRL 4.9 billion on October 2, 2026, while the 52-week range stood at BRL 4.03 to BRL 8.17.