XP cuts Marcopolo rating to Neutral: BRL 5.00 target for Marcopolo stock
Published on 10/16/2026 at 03:13 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWSAnalyst view and operating pressure
- XP cut its rating to Neutral and set a BRL 5.00 target on September 16, 2026.
- Second-quarter revenue rose 3.00 percent to BRL 2.37 billion, while net income fell 15.50 percent to BRL 271.20 million.
- Marcopolo stock was last at BRL 4.66 on October 15, 2026 at B3.
Marcopolo stock was last at BRL 4.66 on B3 on October 15, 2026 at 9:31 p.m. BRT. XP Investimentos cut its rating to Neutral on September 16, 2026 and introduced a BRL 5.00 target for the end of 2027. The downgrade puts weaker production and margins at the center of the stock story.
Why the margin outlook changed
XP said preliminary third-quarter production was 15.00 percent below the comparable period of 2025. Its revised 2027 estimate calls for a 14.90 percent EBITDA margin and BRL 950.00 million in net income, which is 19.00 percent below consensus, according to the September 16 report.
The operating pressure was visible in the latest reported quarter. EBC Financial Group reported that second-quarter 2026 net revenue rose 3.00 percent year over year to BRL 2.37 billion, while net income fell 15.50 percent to BRL 271.20 million. EBITDA margin declined to 14.30 percent.
Three steps to the reset
On August 3, 2026, Marcopolo reported second-quarter net income of BRL 271.20 million, down 15.50 percent year over year. On September 16, 2026, XP changed its rating to Neutral and set a BRL 5.00 target for 2027. On September 17, 2026, POMO4 closed at BRL 4.32 after a 4.64 percent decline, according to EBC Financial Group.
Which date comes next
A Revista reported that Marcopolo's third-quarter 2026 results were scheduled for November 3, 2026. That release should provide the next quantified test of the production and margin assumptions behind XP's revised view.
Stock valuation and operating scale
Marcopolo's second-quarter revenue growth did not translate into earnings growth, creating the central contrast for investors. The company produced 4,105 units in the quarter, an 8.00 percent increase from a year earlier, while its Brazilian market share rose from 47.70 percent to 48.30 percent, according to A Revista. The figures show that volume and market position remained firm even as product mix weighed on profitability.
Price stays below the revised target
The last quoted BRL 4.66 on B3 on October 15, 2026 stood below XP's BRL 5.00 target, while the target itself reflects a more cautious earnings path rather than a return to the earlier bullish view. The November 3 reporting date is the next concrete checkpoint for that thesis.
Marcopolo stock key facts
- Company: Marcopolo S.A.
- ISIN: BRPOMOACNPR7
- Ticker: POMO4
- Primary exchange: B3
- Last quoted price: BRL 4.66 on October 15, 2026 at 9:31 p.m. BRT
- Market capitalization: BRL 5.4 billion as of October 15, 2026
- 52-week range: BRL 4.03-8.17 as of October 15, 2026
- Sector / Industry: Transportation equipment / bus and bus body manufacturing
- Next earnings date: November 3, 2026
Market context: Market report Bovespa.
